Paris Olympics 2024 Draw: Carlos Alcaraz’s projected path to the final ft. potential QF showdown with Tommy Paul and SF with Casper Ruud

The Paris Olympics 2024 will mark Carlos Alcaraz’s debut at the quadrennial games. Not only is he competing in singles but also in doubles, where he is teaming up with 22-time Major champion Rafael Nadal.

Alcaraz recently defended his Wimbledon title to capture his fourth Major crown. He also claimed his first French Open title prior to that. With tennis at the Paris Olympics being played at Roland Garros, he’s now back to the venue of his triumph.

The 21-year-old will be keen to sustain his momentum after a series of injuries plagued him in the first half of the season. The draw for the men’s singles was revealed on Thursday, July 25.

Here’s a look the players Carlos Alcaraz will need to get through to have a shot at the gold medal at the Paris Olympics:

R1 opponent – Hady Habib

Carlos Alcaraz will begin his quest for an Olympic gold against Hady Habib. The latter secured his place in the main draw after Hubert Hurkacz’s withdrawal opened up a spot. The 25-year-old from Lebanon mainly competes on the ITF circuit, and has a career-high ranking of No. 259.

This will be quite a huge step up for Habib compared to the usual caliber of players that he’s up against. Anything other than a routine win for Alcaraz would be quite the upset.

Potential R2 opponent – Cameron Norrie/Tallon Griekspoor

Norrie has a 8-8 record on clay this season, and bowed out in the first round of the French Open. Griekspoor hasn’t fared any better, with a 7-7 record on the red dirt but he did reach the third round of the claycourt Major.

Alcaraz leads Norrie 4-2 in the head-to-head, and the latter won their most recent encounter at the Rio Open 2023 in three sets. The Spaniard has won both of his prior matches against Griekspoor. The reigning Wimbledon champion will have the edge regardless of his opponent at this stage.

Potential R3 opponent – Alejandro Tabilo/Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Alcaraz could face either Tabilo or Etcheverry in the third round, and both players have a preference for clay. While the two have had some great results this year, they’ve also hit some lows.

Tabilo finished as the runner-up at the Italian Open but immediately lost in the first round of the French Open after that. Etcheverry made the final of the Lyon Open, and then fell in the second round of the claycourt Major. While they have the potential to challenge Alcaraz, their inconsistency will always give the Spaniard a chance to make a comeback if he’s in trouble.

Possible QF opponent – Alex de Minaur/Tommy Paul

De Minaur and Paul have tasted considerable success this year, and either could give Alcaraz a tough time if they lock horns in the quarterfinals. The Australian cracked the top 10 of the ATP rankings, and made the quarterfinals of the French Open and Wimbledon.

Paul reached the Wimbledon quarterfinals as well, and advanced to the third round of Roland Garros for the first time. While de Minaur has lost both of his matches against Alcaraz, the American has fared way better.

Alcaraz leads Paul 3-2 in their rivalry, and recently beat him en route to the Wimbledon title. The American could make things tricky but since they’re competing on clay, the Spaniard will be favored to come out on top in the end.

Potential SF opponent – Casper Ruud/Daniil Medvedev

Alcaraz could face another of his familiar rivals in the semifinals, with either Ruud or Medvedev being his likely opponents. The Norwegian has better odds of making the last four, considering his track record on clay as well as at Roland Garros.

Ruud reached back-to-back finals at the French Open in 2022 and 2023, and made the semifinals this year. However, he’s yet to win a match against Alcaraz, and has lost all four of their meetings thus far.

Medvedev has tasted modest success against the Spaniard, and trails their head-to-head 2-5. He recently lost to his younger rival in the Wimbledon semifinals. The Russian’s chances of securing a win over him on clay are minimal as well.

Potential Final opponent – Novak Djokovic/Rafael Nadal/Alexander Zverev

Alcaraz will have to put his best foot forward for his probable opponents in the summit clash are some of the best in the business. He could meet the sport’s biggest icons – either Djokovic or Nadal, or defending champion Zverev.

Alcaraz has already beaten two of them this year. He recently defeated Djokovic in the Wimbledon final, and outplayed Zverev in the French Open final. He also won his previous encounter against Nadal at the 2022 Madrid Open but trails the head-to-head 1-2.

After a few easy rounds, Alcaraz will be put to the test in the latter stages of the tournament. Nevertheless, he will be feeling quite confident of his chances after his recent triumphs at Wimbledon and French Open.