As the Atlanta Braves go through the offseason, it couldn’t hurt for them to explore potential long-term options as well as one-year options.
They’re projected to go for a starting pitcher on the free-agent market. Since they’re likely to lose one of their aces in Max Fried, it would benefit them to get a starter of a similar caliber.
One notable option is a free agent is Cleveland Guardians free agent starter Shane Bieber.
There’s certainly a risk with his injury history. Bieber went under the knife for Tommy John Surgery in April 2024, taking him out for the rest of the season. He’ll certainly miss the start of the 2025 season too. When a pitcher goes under the knife at that point in the season, it’s early enough to get back for part of the following season but too late to be back for the beginning.
So there is an injury history plus he won’t be able to fill a rotation spot to start the year. This wouldn’t be as big of an issue if Spencer Strider wasn’t also missing the start of the season and they weren’t down two arms from last year due to free agency.
So, in the short term, it wouldn’t work out too well. However, in the long term, Bieber has the upside to make his addition worth it.
Bieber has made 136 appearances, 134 of those being starts, in his career. He has a 3.22 ERA, a 133 ERA+ and 958 strikeouts in 843 innings pitched. He’s a two-time all-star and a Cy Young Award winner. Better yet, he’s a Gold Glove winner. At the 2019 All-Star Game in Cleveland, Bieber won the game’s MVP award.
During the COVID-shortened season, Bieber won the American League pitching Triple Crown and the ERA title. That season, he had an 8-1 record, a 1.63 ERA and 122 strikeouts.
He’s a similar age to Max Fried and has a similar track record too. He also has five career complete games and two shutouts.
So, the Braves would need to figure out how to bridge his return along with Strider’s return. They could give an in-house option a try, or still sign another one-year option as well – another Charlie Morton type per se.
Spotrac projects his market value at six years, $147 million ($24.5 million a year). If he wasn’t hurt, it could be argued he could get more on the free agent market. Max Fried could sign for as high as $180 million.
If it looks like he’s going to miss a decent amount of 2025 – Tommy John surgery recovery takes 12 to 18 months to fully recover from – maybe the Braves can negotiate a cheaper first year and backload his deal a bit for when he’ll be back.
The Braves could go get yet another former Cy Young award winner to boost the rotation for the long haul and likely at a solid deal of a contract.