Notre Dame (11-1) and Indiana (11-1) square off in the first round of the College Football Playoff. It’s the first 12-team playoff and the Fighting Irish are hoping to make a big splash. In order to make that happen the Irish offense will need to be at its best against an Indiana defense that was one of the nation’s most improved units.
It is an intriguing matchup between a pair of units that both ranked in the Top 10 nationally in scoring this season. Something will have to give, and Notre Dame will need its offense to become the first team all season to consistently move the ball and score against the Hoosier defense.
Let’s take a look at how the Irish offense stacks up against the Indiana defense.
Notre Dame Rush Offense vs Indiana Rush Defense
Advantage: Even
This is a matchup of the best Power 4 rush defense against arguably the best rushing offense at the Power 4 level. Who wins this battle will have a huge impact on the outcome of the game.
Notre Dame finished the season ranked 10th in rushing yards per game, which ranked third among Power 4 teams. Its 6.3 yards per attempt ranked third overall and was tops among Power 4 teams. Notre Dame began the season inconsistent but explosive on the ground, but after by the bye the Irish run game took off.
Notre Dame rushed for over 200 yards in six of its final seven games and averaged over 6.0 yards per carry in five of the final seven games. Notre Dame averaged 232.6 yards per game and 6.4 yards per carry after its first bye week. Notre Dame’s 220.9 yards per game and 6.0 yards per carry against Power 4 opponents was also tops among all Power 4 teams.
The trio of Jeremiyah Love (949 yards, 15 TD), Jadarian Price (651 yards, 7 TD) and Riley Leonard (721 yards, 14 TD) is as good as there is in the country. Each one has at least one 100 yard game this season, and at least two players from this trio scored a touchdown in the same game in all but one game this season (Virginia).
Indiana has been the best rush defense all season from a statistical standpoint. Its 70.8 yards per game allowed is tops in the nation, and the next closest team is over 12 yards behind the Hoosiers. Its 2.5 yards allowed ranks second in college football. Indiana has a disciplined, aggressive and disruptive run defense led but an undersized but highly productive defensive front.
No team has rushed for more than 137 yards against Indiana, and the Hoosiers held eight of their 12 opponents to less than 100 yards rushing. Charlotte (4.2) and Northwestern (4.2) were the only teams to surpass 4.0 yards per carry against the Indiana defense. Its season best performance was holding Michigan State to -36 rushing yards, and it also held Purdue (13) and Western Illinois (12) to under 20 yards on the ground.
Looking at the competition, Notre Dame faced seven defenses that ranked in the Top 50 nationally in rush defense. That includes three defenses that ranked in the Top 30. USC dropped out of the Top 50 after the Irish racked up 258 yards on that defense to end the regular season. Army ranked third nationally going into its November 23rd matchup against Notre Dame but fell outside of the Top 10 after the Irish gashed them to the tune of 273 yards (9.4 YPC).
On the other side, Indiana didn’t face a single Top 50 rushing offense, and only Ohio State (59) and Michigan (69) ranked among the Top 90 teams. Seven of Indiana’s 12 opponents finished outside of the Top 100 in rushing offense. Indiana faced bad rushing teams all season, but it dominated those bad opponents, holding each of its last seven opponents under their season rushing average. Notre Dame went for 100 yards above its opponents rush defense average in five games while Indiana held opponents to 100 yards below their season average in three games.
One interesting aspect to watch is big plays. As good as Indiana is with its rush defense it ranks 40th in allowing gains of at least 30 yards (5). Notre Dame ranks third nationally with the most gains of 30 yards or more (16).
This is going to be an epic matchup.
Notre Dame Pass Offense vs Indiana Pass Defence
Advantage: Indiana
Where Indiana holds the big statistical advantage against Notre Dame is in the pass game. The Hoosiers are also a Top 10 passing defense, ranking ninth in passing yards allowed, third in yards allowed per attempt and second in yards allowed per completion. Indiana ranks in the Top 25 in every passing category outside of completion percentage allowed.
The Hoosiers are a very disciplined pass defense with a quality secondary, and that group is aided by a highly productive pass rush. Defensive end Mikail Kamara tied for second in the Big Ten with 10 sacks, and the negative 77 yards his sacks generated led the Big Ten by 10 yards. Defensive tackle James Carpenter ranked third in sacks among Big Ten defensive tackles. The Hoosier defense also picked off 14 passes this season and returned two of them for touchdowns.
Notre Dame’s pass offense ranks very low in most categories, with only its pass efficiency, sacks allowed, interceptions and completion percentage ranking in the Top 50 nationally. Leonard has been a dynamic playmaker for most of the season, but he hasn’t shown himself to be an impact passer for most of the season.
Leonard did improve after the first bye week, and he’s shown flashes of getting back to being the passer he was in 2022. The Duke transfer completed 65.1 percent of his passes, averaged 150.0 passing yards per game, averaged 6.0 yards per attempt, 9.1 yards per completion and had just three touchdowns and two picks in the first five games of the season. His passer rating was 119.76 during that stretch.
Coming out of the first bye it was clear Leonard and offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock had started to click a bit more. In the final seven games, Leonard completed 67.1 percent of his throws, averaged 191.7 yards per game, 8.0 yards per attempt and 12.0 yards per completions. He had 13-3 touchdown to interception ratio and had a passer rating of 156.66.
Notre Dame’s wide receivers will need to step up against the Hoosiers and the Irish need to find a way to get their tight ends going in this matchup. This could be a game where Notre Dame really needs tight end Mitchell Evans to play like the preseason All-American player he was.
Notre Dame Offense vs Indiana Defense
Advantage: Even
The Notre Dame offense and the Indiana defense both rank in the Top 10 nationally in scoring and yards per play. Looking at the situational matchups, Notre Dame has a much better red zone touchdown offense (10th to 56th), but Indiana dominates on third down (8th to 87th). Both teams are good in the turnover department, with Notre Dame ranking 25th in turnovers lost and Indiana ranking 12th in turnovers gained. Three of Notre Dame’s 12 lost turnovers were from the special teams.