Here are five things to watch from a Packers perspective as the Philadelphia Eagles host the Washington Commanders and the Kansas City Chiefs host the Buffalo Bills for spots in the Super Bowl.
1. Quarterback Movement
Yes, knee and groin injuries obviously limited Jordan Love’s movement this season. He carried the ball 25 times for 83 yards and picked up nine first downs. But his legs weren’t much of a factor last year, either, when he ran 50 times for 247 yards and gained 16 first downs.
Love doesn’t need to play like Jalen Hurts or Jayden Daniels, but his above-average athleticism should be more of an asset. Heck, Aaron Rodgers had eight seasons in which he ran for 20-plus first downs.
Of Sunday’s signal-callers, Washington’s Daniels ranked second among quarterbacks with 891 rushing yards, Philadelphia’s Hurts was third with 632 yards and Buffalo’s Josh Allen was fifth with 531 yards.
It’s not just the yards. It’s the move-the-chains ability. Hurts (62), Daniels (55) and Allen (52) finished one-two-three in rushing first downs by a quarterback. Among all players on third down, Hurts (29) had the most rushing first downs, with Daniels and Allen (21) tied for second. Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes (12) had more than Josh Jacobs (11).
Mahomes ran for 307 yards and was 14th with 22 first downs, but he’s one of the all-time great playoff scramblers because he does whatever is necessary to win a game. In last year’s Super Bowl against San Francisco, he ran nine times for 66 yards. A year earlier in the Super Bowl against Philadelphia, he ran six times for 44 yards. In the 2021 playoff win against Buffalo, he was the Chiefs’ leading rusher with 69 yards.
Love has shown he’s capable. NFL rules have greatly diminished the risks. Whether it’s designed runs, bootlegs or scrambles, Love needs to be unleashed.
2. To Blitz or Not to Blitz
If there was one “right” way to play defense, every team would be playing that style.
So, was Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley too conservative at times? Maybe. But being aggressive doesn’t always equate to winning football.
Kansas City’s Steve Spagnuolo is one of the legends among defensive coordinators. According to SportRadar, the Chiefs had the fourth-highest blitz rate at 31.6 percent. The Washington Commanders, led by the vision of coach Dan Quinn, had the fifth-highest blitz rate at 31.5 percent.
On the other side of the coin are their opponents. The Eagles under another coordinator legend, Vic Fangio, had the fifth-lowest blitz rate at 19.1 percent. He blitzed Love exactly one time in the wild-card game. The Bills, led by their defense-centered coach Sean McDermott, also had a blitz rate of 19.1 percent.
Hafley’s Packers were the second-lowest at 17.3 percent.
“To me, it’s all about points,” Hafley said before the playoff game. “So, if you’ve got to look at one thing, it’s points scored. And I do believe we’ve kept the points down to give ourselves a chance to win games because, ultimately, it’s just about winning. So, if you told me we’d win and have a chance to be in the playoffs, I’d be pretty happy, and if we helped along the way do that way and help our team do that, then that’s our job.”
By the way, 17 players had 10-plus sacks this season. Only one will be on the field on Sunday, Dante Fowler of the Commanders, who had 10.5.
3. No. 1 Receiver
After Green Bay’s legion of young receivers didn’t rise to the occasion this season, do the Packers need to draft or sign a receiver this offseason to be that No. 1 receiver?
The Eagles have a No. 1 receiver with A.J. Brown. He’s finished in the top eight in receiving yards per game each of the last three seasons. On the other hand, in two playoff games this season, he has three receptions for 24 yards.
The Commanders have a No. 1 receiver with Terry McLaurin, who is coming off a fifth consecutive season of 1,000 receiving yards. He set a career high with 13 receiving touchdowns, and has games of 89 yards and one touchdown and 87 yards and one touchdown in the playoffs.
The Bills traded their No. 1 receiver, Stefon Diggs, to the Houston Texans. Former fifth-round pick Khalil Shakir, with 76 receptions for 821 yards, is the only player on the team with more than 45 catches or 560 yards.
The Chiefs’ No. 1 receiver isn’t a receiver; it’s aging tight end Travis Kelce, who led the way with 97 receptions for 823 yards. Their leading receiver, Xavier Worthy, caught 59 passes for 638 yards and six touchdowns.
Getting back to the original question, do the Packers need a No. 1 receiver? The answer, based on Sunday’s teams, is a resounding no.
“I know the term No. 1 receiver gets thrown around a lot, and I think that just depends on what that means to you,” general manager Brian Gutekunst said. “But I’d like our football team to get to a point where we can win in situational football better than we have right now. I think for us to do that, that group’s going to have to take some steps and I think they will. They’re on the right track.”
4. Running Backs Aren’t Just for Running
We hit on this earlier in the week, but watch how the quarterbacks move the chains.
On third down:
The Bills, who finished second in scoring, gained nine first downs on passes to running backs.
The Commanders, who finished fifth in scoring, gained six first downs on passes to running backs.
The Eagles, who finished seventh in scoring, gained nine first downs on passes to running backs.
The Chiefs, who finished just 15th in scoring, gained 13 first downs on passes to running backs.
The Packers? They had zero.
That goes back to Gutekunst’s quote from a moment ago. The Packers don’t necessarily need a No. 1 receiver. They just need to be better in situational football. Getting the ball to a running back in space, rather than forcing one to a receiver, sometimes is the better option.
5. Third and Fourth Down
Third down is the most important down. Everyone knows that.
The Chiefs finished second in the NFL on third down (48.5 percent), with the Commanders (45.6 percent) sixth, the Bills (44.1 percent) seventh and the Eagles (41.7 percent) 10th.
Today’s NFL has become more of a four-down game, and Sunday’s championship teams are the best in the NFL on fourth down. The Commanders finished first on fourth down (87.0 percent), followed by the Bills (72.7 percent), Chiefs (70.6 percent) and Eagles (70.4 percent).
It helps to have quarterbacks who are capable of making things happen. It also helps to have coaches who are not afraid to take some chances. Only three teams went for it less frequently than the Packers (16).
The Commanders went for it nine times in their first two playoff games alone.
“I think that’s who we are the whole season,” Quinn said before last week’s playoff win at Detroit. “But when you do get stopped early, you just have to stay the course knowing that, ‘Hey, keep your chin tucked and keep swinging,’ knowing that this is going to be a game that’s going to go all the way down to the end.”