Everton vs Leicester: Opposition Analysis | A Golden Opportunity To Make it Three

If Everton’s 3-2 win over Tottenham Hotspur was an exciting goalfest – maybe a little too much so in the closing stages – then the team’s 1-0 victory over Brighton & Hove Albion was more subdued, though no less important. In winning consecutive games for the first time this season, the Blues put some distance between themselves and those clubs propping up the Premier League table.

The team is back on home turf this afternoon, for the first of a trio of matches. Arriving today will be struggling Leicester City, who sit one place behind today’s hosts in 17th spot, but trailing them by six points and with dramatically inferior goal difference.

Form

If there were any doubts remaining amongst fans, as to the wisdom of a side such as Everton dropping out of the top flight in order for a “reset” (a somewhat vague term), then examining the fortunes of the Foxes should put paid to them. Finishing one place behind the Toffees in the 2022/23 campaign, the Midlands outfit shed considerable talent, yet still managed an immediate return to the Premier League, winning the Championship title. So far, so good, right? The first signs of impending problems would be the club losing its impressive manager, Enzo Maresca, who was lured away to Chelsea during the summer, to be replaced by Steve Cooper.

The ex-Nottingham Forest man was supported only modestly in the transfer market, ahead of the new campaign. The club suffered a big loss, with the departure of their star man from their promotion push, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall to Chelsea (€35.4m). Bolstering the ranks were eight additions, acquired for a combined €86m, though their impact has been mixed. Winger Issahaku Fatawu (€16.3m, Sporting CP) showed promise before suffering an ACL injury. Atalanta centre half Caleb Okoli (€14m) has fallen out of the starting lineup, as has Oliver Skipp (€23.5m, Spurs). Only attacking midfielder Bilal El Khannouss (€20.5m, Genk), Jordan Ayew (€5.9m, Crystal Palace) and teenage attacker Facundo Buonanotte (loan, Brighton) are regulars.

 Photo by Alex Pantling/Getty Images

The realities of the challenge ahead was apparent from the beginning of the season, with Leicester failing to win any of their opening six matches, including a home draw with Everton. The unpopular Cooper managed to briefly stablise the situation with back-to-back victories, over South Coast duo Bournemouth and Southampton, before the poor form continued. Four without a win, ending with a home defeat to Chelsea, sealed Cooper’s fate. The Foxes were crushed by Brentford under an interim, before Ruud van Nistelrooy took the reins. The ex-Manchester United assistant got off to a good start, with a 3-1 win over struggling West Ham United and a draw against Brighton.

Since, however, the enormity of the task at hand has looked likely to swamp the former goalscoring great. Seven consecutive defeats have followed, with the East Midlanders scoring only two goals and shipping an alarming 17 in return. With the axe presumably hovering once more, the Dutchman managed an unlikely 2-1 win away at Spurs last weekend, to earn a temporary reprieve, ahead of a visit to Goodison Park.

Style of Play

Under Cooper, Leicester were ultra-pragmatic, a source of grievance with fans who’d watched their side play wide-open attacking football under the outgoing Maresca. Ostensibly a progressive coach, Cooper’s bruising experiences towards the end of his tenure at Forest had influenced him towards a defence-oriented outlook and this did not go down well at the King Power Stadium. As has been seen at Everton under Sean Dyche, such negative football will only be tolerated so long as results follow, so it was adios Cooper, hello van Nistelrooy, who promised to play more on the front foot.

The 48-year-old had done OK in one season at PSV, after spending some years in a junior capacity both at PSV and with the Netherlands setup, before resigning due to a disagreement with the club’s hierarchy. He joined United for a short stint as Erik ten Hag’s assistant, before succeeding his countryman as interim boss, in which he won three and drew one of four matches. Two of those wins happened to be against Leicester, so it was perhaps no coincidence that the faltering side turned to him to succeed Cooper. If nothing else, RvN’s approach to playing the game would get the fans onside.

 Photo by Gareth Copley/Getty Images

He’s tried, though managing a squad of such limited ability has clearly proven to be a shock. In his ten league matches in charge, Leicester have commanded a 45.1% share of possession and there does appear to be some attempt to orchestrate play in a more pleasing fashion. Whether he’ll get the time to transition fully, or if the Foxes can even do so at this level, is questionable. Their xG is averaging under 1.0 per game, whereas their xGA is an eye-watering 18.9 over that ten-game span. Van Nistelrooy has alternated formations quite regularly as he’s searched for answers, though he’ll probably retain the 4-3-3 he used for the win over Spurs today.

Player Assessment

The evergreen Jamie Vardy will present the visitors’ main threat this afternoon. It’s a tribute to the 38-year-old, who still makes intelligent runs and has retained at least some of his former blistering pace, that he’s been able to score seven Premier League goals at his vintage — and in such a poor side. He’s not getting many chances – with an SCA (Shot—Creating Actions) statistic per 90 minutes of just 1.52 – but is taking them.

Collectively, the Leicester defence has been woeful. Starting fullbacks James Justin and Victor Kristiansen have combined for five individual errors which have resulted in shots on goal; centre back duo Wout Faes and Jannik Vestergaard have added another four blunders. The entire defensive unit, including backups like one-time Everton loanee Conor Coady, are Championship standard.

Solution

The Blues were hit by injuries to key players last weekend, in losing key midfielder Orel Mangala for the season and primary striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin for at least a number of weeks. As replacements, Beto will be handed a start, with the returning James Garner slotting in alongside the impressive Idrissa Gueye. Whether Everton will be able to bring in additional reinforcements, beyond the soon-to-be-announced attacking midfielder Carlos Alcaraz – signed on loan yesterday from Brazilian outfit Flamengo – is unknown, though the manager is clearly frustrated by the artificially-created financial restrictions imposed by the Premier League upon the club.

 Photo by Mike Hewitt/Getty Images

This game presents a huge opportunity for the Toffees to push towards mid-table and away from those involved in the relegation battle, especially if Southampton can get something against Ipswich Town and – as expected – Wolverhampton Wanderers lose to Aston Villa today. Morale will be high amongst the team and those in attendance at Goodison —whereas the visitors’ confidence will still be brittle. I expect Everton to line up in the hybrid 3-4-3/4-2-3-1 formation which Moyes has favoured in his three games so far.

Leicester have a few decent players in attack – though hardly of the same calibre as Spurs two weeks ago – a lacklustre midfield, and an appalling defence. If the Blues go at them with the same energy and appetite as was evident against Tottenham, then the Midlanders will surely crumble. Everton’s defence has been solid under the new man (an xGA of 3.0 across all three matches) and should handle the Foxes’ threat with comparative ease.

I expect the hosts to show a lot more in attack than they managed on the road against the Seagulls and this will be enough to create ample opportunities to score the goals to win this match.