In this betting preview:
- Tournament format breakdown
- Expert picks and predictions
- BetMGM odds to win
- Betting trends from past winners
- Course overview
What a difference a week makes. Read the Line readers sat well-positioned holding both 54-hole leaders on Saturday night: Andrea Lee in Portland, Jon Rahm the favorite to take home gold in Paris. Rahm increased his lead to four strokes with eight holes to play. Then Scottie Scheffler happened again. Rahm imploded, while Scheffler went nuclear on the back nine, beating the Spaniard by 10 shots! Ten shots on nine holes — unbelievable. Well, I have good news and bad news. Bad news: we lost. Good news: we will not have to mention Jon Rahm’s name again until the 2025 Masters.
The only one who might have felt worse than the Rahm backers were Tom Kim. We pushed the military narrative all week, and it was obviously motivating him. His reaction in the scorer’s trailer following his round was quite emotional. Those types of emotional moments are also common at the Wyndham Championship. Guys are competing to preserve their careers. Who could forget Justin Thomas’ near hole-out on the final green to get in the playoffs? Oddly enough, it is not JT who needs a good week at the Wyndham — it’s Jordan Spieth. Spieth sits at number 63 on the FedEx Cup points list. The top 70 and ties make the playoffs — and much like the final four holes in France, the field for next week at the St. Jude will not be finalized until late Sunday afternoon.
This preview is just that: a preview. For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the Wyndham Championship and women’s Olympic golf, finishing positions, and H2H matchups,please go to Read The Line and subscribe.
Wyndham Championship: Expert picks and predictions
Best bet to win: Cameron Young (+3000 on FanDuel)
I believe Cameron Young’s first career win will come under odd circumstances. Sometimes great players just need an outside influence to help them break through. Young is an incredible ball striker. He’s proven it on several occasions, most recently shooting 59 at the Travelers and following that performance up with a sixth at the Rocket Mortgage.
While he’s hot, I’m grabbing Young to take down the Wyndham. These conditions will call for incredible accuracy off the tee and on approach. Cam can check both boxes and is great on Bermudagrass. Watch the Wake Forest alum contend and capture his first career title in Carolina.
Best bet to place: Eric Cole to finish top 20 (+280 on BetRivers)
Cole just finished sixth at the Rocket Mortgage and seventh at the John Deere. The 2023 Rookie of the Year struggled early in 2024. After a couple of welcome venues, he’s back to competing at a high level.
Cole finished 14th here last year and then went on to grab four top 5s in seven starts. Sedgefield puts less pressure on his driver and allows the wedge and putter to score. He can win on Bermudagrass, and with his scrambling ability will play with a ton of confidence in these conditions. Add it all up and I’ll take Cole all the way to the cash window.
Best head-to-head: Taylor Moore over Jordan Spieth (+125 on DraftKings)
Spieth’s last top-10 finish was in early April at the Valero. He has struggled all season with his approach game and now his putting. Unfortunately, Sedgefield calls for both skills in order to contend. At 63rd on the FedEx Cup points list, he had to play this week.
Moore just finished 10th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and 12th at the 3M Open. Stateside, he has been great, and he loves Bermudagrass. Take Taylor and cash this ticket probably whenever Round 2 ends.
Wyndham Championship: Live odds to win
Odds (+10000 and shorter) courtesy of BetMGM.
| Golfer | Odds |
| Sungjae Im | +1400 |
| Billy Horschel | +2500 |
| Shane Lowry | +2500 |
| Si Woo Kim | +2500 |
| Brian Harman | +2800 |
| Cameron Young | +2800 |
| Christian Bezuidenhout | +3300 |
| Aaron Rai | +3500 |
| Akshay Bhatia | +3500 |
| Davis Thompson | +3500 |
| Jordan Spieth | +3500 |
| Cam Davis | +4000 |
| Min Woo Lee | +4000 |
| Harris English | +4500 |
| Keegan Bradley | +4500 |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | +4500 |
| Robert MacIntyre | +4500 |
| Thomas Detry | +4500 |
| Kurt Kitayama | +5000 |
| Luke Clanton | +5000 |
| Denny McCarthy | +5500 |
| J.T. Poston | +5500 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | +5500 |
| Justin Rose | +5500 |
| Keith Mitchell | +5500 |
| Maverick McNealy | +5500 |
| Eric Cole | +6000 |
| Erik van Rooyen | +6000 |
| Stephan Jaeger | +6000 |
| Taylor Moore | +6000 |
| Doug Ghim | +6600 |
| Matt Kuchar | +6600 |
| Max Greyserman | +6600 |
| Nick Dunlap | +6600 |
| Ryan Fox | +6600 |
| Victor Perez | +6600 |
| Will Zalatoris | +6600 |
| Ben Griffin | +8000 |
| Mac Meissner | +8000 |
| Patrick Rodgers | +8000 |
| Webb Simpson | +8000 |
| Adam Hadwin | +8000 |
| Adam Svensson | +8000 |
| Andrew Novak | +8000 |
| Andrew Putnam | +8000 |
| C.T. Pan | +8000 |
| J.J. Spaun | +8000 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | +8000 |
| Michael Thorbjornsen | +8000 |
| Sam Stevens | +8000 |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | +8000 |
| Seamus Power | +9000 |
Wyndham Championship: Conditions, winning trends
The weather this week will only further emphasize the main scoring skills needed at Sedgefield. Before we get to those, I also took a look at the best players in sloppy conditions. Over the last few years, we have seen a couple of these lift, clean, and place championships. Remember what happened at Royal Troon three weeks ago? As such, it is important to gain a perspective on who can thrive in this environment. The softer it gets, the easier it will be to stop the ball. When you consider accuracy off the tee, those advantages do not exist in the rough. The only players who will get to touch the ball will be those in the fairway. Finding the short grass was already a huge priority at SCC, and with the possibility of getting to clean the ball it becomes even more of an edge.
Approach players excel here under normal conditions. Soft conditions will make this sub 7,200 setting into a dart board. The best iron players know their carry numbers to within a yard or two. Sedgefield is one of the easiest approach courses on the PGA TOUR. Add in this wet element and the better iron attackers will increase their edge. The field historically plays a majority of their approach shots from 125-175 yards. Yet they gain the most on their competitors from 200+. That trend will definitely continue as the course should play longer favoring lengthier approaches. We won’t take all wedge players this week.
I always look at the best par 70 players in the field when we visit a venue like Sedgefield. Two less par 5s make a huge difference in scoring. The last ten winners here have gained an average of 2.3 strokes on the 5s and 10 strokes on the 4s. I understand there are more 4s, but the point is to register 20+ sub-par scores you need to birdie the nine par 4s under 450 yards. When you consider the challenging conditions players will face, this strokes gained category really summarizes the skill set needed. Find the fairway, attack on approach, and then convert the birdie chance.
Sedgefield has a 3-putt rate well above the TOUR average. I know Lucas Glover is not a good putter, but he was that week. These Donald Ross green complexes covered in grainy Bermudagrass are challenging. They have subtle breaks, swales, false fronts, and tiered shelves. Getting on the correct plateau is important, but also is making all of those saving putts under 10′. Good Bermudagrass putters have fared well here over the years. Add in the element of a storm and those grainy surfaces only get more players guessing. Wet, humid conditions increase the grain effect. If you can’t putt Bermuda under dry conditions, this week will be a bigger struggle.
The storm is also going to increase short game concerns. Windy conditions will cause players to miss more GIRs. In the past, ARG play was not a huge concern at Sedgefield. I believe this year it will be. I’ll be adding the influence of better players on Bermudagrass around the green. Previous success on this southern strain of grass shows the ability to score from into the grain and long grass Bermuda lies. Three of the last five winners lost strokes ARG the week they won. Be careful, and pay attention to your players as wedge acumen will be upgraded in this year’s edition.
Recent form combined with course history really counts at Sedgefield. This is a quirky course that many players do not play every year. Many of those who always sit around the top 125 have more experience here than the elite members of the field. The last time Jordan Spieth came here was 2020. It also feels like the last time he had a top 10 finish. Be careful selecting players just based upon ranking. Sedgefield is just like Harbourtown or Wai’alae. There are specific horses for courses and we have a bunch across our entire betting card.
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Wyndham Championship: Sedgefield Country Club
We have a developing situation in Greensboro, North Carolina for the Wyndham. Hurricane Debby is heading toward the Carolinas. The massive storm just dumped epic amounts of rain on western Florida and now is tracking for the PGA TOUR. As of Wednesday morning, we are looking at heavy rain throughout today into Saturday morning. The Sedgefield region received 2″ of rain over the previous 10 days. Another two to four plus inches is expected from the storm. Temperatures are forecasted in the high 70s rising to the high 80s over the weekend.
Sedgefield Country Club is a par 70 layout barely stretching 7,200 yards (7,131). Target golf from tee to green is always the focus here. Along with some great Bermudagrass putting. The average green size is 6,000 sq/ft. These putting surfaces promote one of the easiest SG:APP venues on TOUR annually. That historical trend will get tested by the conditions. The storm will bring some serious wind with 16 -18mph sustained and gusts well over 20 mph. Keep an eye on the forecast with our link. DO NOT lock in those DFS lineups until later and we get the best prediction closer to starting. Sedgefield CC is a wonderful course where we have a substantial amount of data history. Unfortunately, it seems Mother Nature will be the lead story this week instead of the playoff cut line.
Outside of the storm, everyone in Greensboro has one common goal; move up the points list! It doesn’t matter where you sit, this will be a huge motivating/pressure storyline. The top 125 get access to the fall swing to secure their 2025 card. The top 70 get into the playoffs and a chance to move toward the top 50. The top 50 is a huge goal that determines “signature status.” We have no idea what next year’s schedule will bring, but I can assure you it will involve $20M+ signature events. Gaining access to those is a step one priority for the favorites here. Those inside the top 50 are trying to stay there and get to East Lake (top 30). Our field of 156 all have something to play for besides winning the golf tournament.
To top 65 and ties make the weekend and also compete for $7.9 million. The Wyndham is fun. The average winning score over the last decade is 20 under par. Those 10 champions averaged 24 sub-par scores en route to winning. Seven of those 10 held pre-tournament odds over +5500. So there’s a very good chance with a short course in soft conditions, we will see another long shot winner like Jhonny Vegas! As much scoring as we have seen over the years, the average cutline is only -2.4 under par. Donald Ross’ Sedgefield design can cause bogeys. Under questionable conditions this week, be prepared for some Open Championship style bogey avoidance. Thirteen holes have water, there’s 52 bunkers, and these Champion Bermudagrass greens cause a number of 3 putts.
The next four weeks the cutline on Friday fades away as every field will be cut come Sunday afternoon as well. Only 21 of the top 50 in the OWGR are in Greensboro. I expect a volatile scoreboard all week and a ton of drama. By the end, our outrights will continue to contend and give us a great chance at win number eight this year!