As the Seattle Mariners gear up for the 2025 MLB season, baseball analysts and publications are projecting a successful campaign for the team. According to FanGraphs, a respected baseball analytics website, the Mariners have a 35.2% chance of winning the American League West division, a figure that places them ahead of the Texas Rangers (28.8%) and the Houston Astros (27.7%). This projection, coupled with the team’s recent performances and key roster moves, has created significant excitement among fans and analysts alike.
Strength in Pitching
One of the key reasons behind the Mariners’ strong forecast is their impressive starting rotation. Since acquiring Luis Castillo in 2022, the team has consistently maintained one of the league’s best rotations. For the 2025 season, the Mariners will feature Logan Gilbert as their Opening Day starter, followed by Castillo, Bryce Miller, and Bryan Woo. George Kirby, who is currently recovering from shoulder soreness, is expected to rejoin the rotation soon. This group has established itself as one of the most formidable pitching staffs in the MLB, which could be a critical factor in the Mariners’ postseason aspirations.
Offensive Firepower
Seattle’s offense also looks strong heading into the new season. The outfield trio of Randy Arozarena, Julio Rodríguez, and Víctor Robles is expected to provide both power and speed. Arozarena, acquired in the offseason, brings postseason experience and a dynamic bat to the lineup. Rodríguez, the face of the franchise, continues to develop into one of the game’s top young stars, while Robles adds defensive excellence.
Catcher Cal Raleigh is another key contributor to the team’s success. Raleigh has led all MLB catchers in home runs over the past three seasons and won the Platinum Glove Award in 2024, solidifying himself as one of the league’s premier defensive and offensive catchers. Additionally, veterans Rowdy Tellez and Donovan Solano have been brought in to bolster the team’s lineup. Tellez is expected to see significant playing time at first base and as a designated hitter, providing much-needed power from the left side of the plate.
Projected Performance
Despite a relatively quiet offseason, the Mariners are positioned as strong contenders in the AL West. While FanGraphs estimates the team will finish with an 84-78 record, other projections suggest that Seattle could exceed expectations, especially if their pitching remains dominant and their offense continues to improve.
The Mariners have not won a division title since 2001, and fans are eager to see their team break that drought. With a balanced roster and a strong mix of young talent and experienced veterans, the Mariners appear to have all the ingredients for a playoff push.
Season Opener and Key Matchups
Seattle will begin its 2025 campaign with a four-game home series against the Oakland Athletics, starting on March 27. This will be followed by a three-game set against the Detroit Tigers. Key early-season matchups include series against division rivals such as the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers, which could help shape the Mariners’ path to the postseason.
With high expectations and a talented roster, the Mariners have a golden opportunity to make a deep playoff run in 2025.