Supercomputer shuns Carlos Alcaraz and Coco Gauff in 2024 US Open title predictions

Carlos Alcaraz is the bookmakers’ favourite to win this year’s US Open while Coco Gauff is the defending champion in the women’s draw, but a supercomputer has them as outsiders for the titles at the final Grand Slam of the year.

Alcaraz has won two of the three majors in 2024, lifting trophies at the French Open and Wimbledon, while he also finished runner-up at the Paris Olympics.

Jannik Sinner won the season-opening Grand Slam at Melbourne Park, the Australian Open, while Novak Djokovic won singles gold at Paris 2024.

Sinner will be the top seed at Flushing Meadows as he leads the ATP Rankings. The Italian has also won the most titles (4) and has the best win-loss record as he is 44-5 for the year. Alcaraz is 38-7 with three titles while Djokovic is 29-7 with only one title.

Many bookmakers have Alcaraz down as the man to beat at the US Open but, according to Sportsbook Review’s supercomputer, Sinner will be the last man standing as they have him just ahead of Djokovic.

The supercomputer has the Italian at 38.7% to win the title with defending champion Djokovic at 36.8%. Alcaraz – who won his maiden Grand Slam at Flushing Meadows when he lifted the trophy in 2022 – is a distant third with 18.2% while 2021 US Open winner Daniil Medvedev is an outsider at 5.8%.

The US Open was simulated more than 2,000 times by the supercomputer with player history, Elo ratings, and current odds used to predict the winners.

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In the women’s draw, Iga Swiatek is the clear favourite to win a second US Open trophy.

The Pole has a 50-6 win-loss record and has won five titles this year and has won five titles this year, including the French Open.

Reigning world No 1 Swiatek won the tournament in 2022 and, according to the supercomputer, she is 50.3% to win a sixth Grand Slam in just over a fortnight with Elena Rybakina (currently fourth in the WTA Rankings) second on 16.5%.

Following her Cincinnati Open win, Aryna Sabalenka is 39-11 with two titles and she is the bookmakers’ favourite, but the Belarusian is only third favourite with the supercomputer putting her on 12.9% while defending champion Gauff has been given a 3.5% chance of retaining her title.

Gauff has struggled in recent months as she lost in the third round of the Paris Olympics, third round of the Canadian Open and the second round of the Cincinnati Open.