Tennessee, knowing misery loves company, provided rival Alabama a little comfort by losing to Arkansas.
And Missouri got unmasked as a fraud in College Station.
The playoff picture is topsy-turvy, within the SEC and beyond.
On this edition of “SEC Football Unfiltered,” a podcast from the USA TODAY Network, hosts Blake Toppmeyer and John Adams offer a playoff reset.
First up, they react to what the Paul Finebaum, host of “The Paul Finebaum Show” on the SEC Network, told Toppmeyer about Alabama’s 40-35 loss to Vanderbilt.
What Paul Finebaum said about Alabama’s loss to Vanderbilt
Finebaum called the result “the most shocking and shattering loss I have ever seen,” in part because Alabama had just toppled Georgia the week previously.
TOPPMEYER: As Alabama fans fume on Paul Finebaum Show, Kalen DeBoer enjoys path to recovery
ADAMS: How the SEC could be doing the Big Ten an unintentional favor
“I’m wondering, was this a mirage?” Finebaum said. “Did Kalen DeBoer get some secret magic sauce, and he simply used it all in the first half of the Georgia game, and now he can’t find it? It just doesn’t feel or look like the same team.”
Finebaum stressed the importance of Alabama beating South Carolina and Tennessee these next two Saturdays. If Alabama loses to either, it likely would have to navigate the remainder of the season undefeated to qualify for the College Football Playoff.
“You don’t want to play Russian Roulette the rest of the season against Missouri, against LSU, against Oklahoma, knowing that you’re out of mulligans,” Finebaum said.
And, if you’re Kalen DeBoer, you don’t want to go into the offseason at 9-3, with everyone knowing the reason you failed to make the playoff was because Alabama suffered its first loss to Vanderbilt in 40 years.
“If this school doesn’t get to the playoffs, this is going to be the scarlet letter around his neck,” Finebaum said. “Let’s say Alabama goes 9-3, he’s going to go through the offseason on the rubber chicken circuit and in recruits’ homes having to answer the question, ‘You didn’t make the playoffs because you lost to Vanderbilt?’”
Also in this episode:
Consider this trio: Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee. Which is most likely to miss the playoff?
Adams: Georgia. I base that answer on two factors: Georgia (4-1) must navigate a tough schedule. The Bulldogs will play at Texas, at Ole Miss and vs. Tennessee. That’s three top-10 opponents remaining, and Georgia would need to win two of three to feel good about its playoff standings. Further, Georgia has not looked impressive other than the second half of its season-opening win against Clemson.
Toppmeyer: Tennessee. Of these three teams we’re considering, the Vols (4-1) have played the weakest schedule, and still they suffered a loss at Arkansas. Tennessee’s offense lacks the punch we’ve come to expect from Josh Heupel’s teams. The offensive line leaks, quarterback Nico Iamaleava doesn’t look entirely comfortable, and the Vols lack the big-play explosiveness they showed throughout their memorable 2022 season. Not only will Tennessee need to at least split its games with Alabama and Georgia, it also needs to avoid losing to teams like Florida, Kentucky and Vanderbilt. The Tennessee team that lost to Arkansas could lose to any of those teams.
How many teams will the SEC qualify for the playoff?
Adams: Four. I had the number at five throughout the preseason, but I started to reframe that after Week 1, when Texas A&M lost to Notre Dame and LSU went down against Southern Cal. Subsequent losses by Ole Miss, Georgia, Alabama and Tennessee make four qualifiers more likely than five.
Toppmeyer: Four. I, too, had projected five playoff qualifiers in the preseason, but I didn’t have Ole Miss losing to Kentucky, Alabama losing to Vanderbilt or Tennessee losing to Arkansas on my Bingo card. Those three results, in particular, caused me to reel in my playoff total for the SEC.
Week 7 picks!
Picks against the spread:
South Carolina at Alabama (-21.5)
Toppmeyer: Alabama; Adams: Alabama
Oklahoma vs. Texas (-14)
Toppmeyer: Texas; Adams: Texas
Florida at Tennessee (-15.5)
Toppmeyer: Florida; Adams: Tennessee
Ole Miss (-3.5) at LSU
Toppmeyer: LSU; Adams: LSU
Vanderbilt at Kentucky (-13.5)
Toppmeyer: Kentucky; Adams: Kentucky
Lock of the week
Toppmeyer: Clemson (-19.5) at Wake Forest; Adams: Ball State (-6.5) at Kent State
Season records
Toppmeyer: 21-11 (3-3 last week); Adams: 19-13 (3-3 last week).