Aaron Boone’s hedging shows Clay Holmes’ grip on Yankees’ closer job is weakening
For the first time this season, Aaron Boone has begun hedging on the identity of his closer.
No, Boone did not strip Clay Holmes of the title after the righty blew his MLB-leading 10th attempted save. But as Holmes increasingly has struggled to close the door on games, his manager crept open the door on a change — at least eventually — in his ninth-inning plans.
“Look: We’ll see as we go. We have a lot of really good options [as closer],” Boone said after Sunday’s 3-2, 10-inning loss to the Tigers in Williamsport, Pa., pivoted during a troublesome ninth.
The latest late-inning misadventure was not much like the others. When Holmes falters, typically it is because he pitches to weak contact, and ground balls find holes. Sunday, Holmes recorded all three of his outs via strikeouts, but Colt Keith’s 99.6-mph smash down the left-field line stayed fair for a double, before Jace Jung smacked a two-out single past a diving Oswaldo Cabrera at third to bring in the tying run.
Holmes blamed a pair of sinkers that “could have been a little more off the plate or down.” Boone bemoaned the sinker to Keith, which he thought was flat. Whatever the cause, it amounted to Holmes sinking to 26 of 36 in save chances and his ERA rising to 2.88.
“The reality is he’s throwing the ball really well,” Boone said of Holmes. “We got a lot of guys I feel like that are throwing the ball really well in certain situations. But right now, Clay’s the guy.”
If Boone had another shutdown, proven arm, Holmes likely would no longer be the guy. Since July 31 — a day after the trade deadline — the Yankees’ bullpen has been the 16th most valuable, according to FanGraphs, while pitching to a 3.71 ERA. The unit has been merely fine this season after it had dominated in past years, relying upon projects and potential rather than past performance.
If Holmes loses his grip on the job, perhaps fourth-year major leaguer Jake Cousins grabs it. But the 30-year-old, who has pitched well (2.10 ERA in 23 games) since he was essentially bought from the White Sox in March, recorded his first career save last Tuesday and has little track record to rely upon.
The Yankees might have envisioned Mark Leiter Jr. stepping up to take the reins when the trade-deadline pick-up arrived, but the righty has allowed six earned runs in 8 ⅓ innings in pinstripes, including coughing up Sunday’s game in the 10th.
Maybe Luke Weaver (3.39 ERA, zero career saves) or Tommy Kahnle (3.48 ERA, seven saves in 10 seasons) gets the nod, but neither is accustomed to closing out games and both are integral bridges to the ninth.
Boone will have decisions to make in the coming days or weeks, but his club would be best off if Holmes can fix whatever has gone wrong — an issue for which there is no obvious diagnosis.
Entering the Yankees’ off day Monday, Holmes’ groundball rate (67.6 percent) was the best in baseball among pitchers with at least 50 innings and not by a little (Arizona’s Justin Martinez was second at 63.8 percent). Holmes continues to force batters to chop pitches into the dirt.
In Holmes’ three full seasons as a Yankee, opponents’ average exit velocity has never been better this year (87.7 mph), the southbound contact rarely well-struck. Inducing ground balls and soft contact should be a combination for domination, and yet no other closer has failed as often as he has this year.
Holmes’ under-the-hood numbers are mostly on par with previous seasons, with two exceptions:
- Batters are hitting .348 against his sinker, a spike from a pitch that induces weak contact and led to a .260 opponents’ batting average last season;
- Batters are hitting .350 on any ball they put in play against Holmes, which was the fifth-highest mark among any pitcher with at least 50 innings pitched.
The two numbers are linked: Opponents are making contact with a lot of Holmes’ sinkers, and the pokes are too often turning into hits.
Maybe it is simply bad luck. Maybe the Yankees’ defense has let him down. Maybe Holmes, who relies on well-placed infielders as much as any reliever in baseball, has been inordinately hurt by the shift regulations that were introduced last year.
“He’s had some tough breaks back there that’s led to [his blown saves],” said Boone, who will have to decide whether Holmes can still be trusted. “I can think of a couple of them where we didn’t make a play, and it goes on him.”
