With the signing of Corbin Burnes by the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Toronto Blue Jays’ offseason plans are officially down the tubes. Burnes represented the Jays’ last opportunity to bring aboard a real game-changing talent. While there are still some decent options on the market like Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, and Anthony Santander, it is highly unlikely that the Jays, even if they should acquire one of these top remaining free agents, could find themselves in contention.
The Blue Jays finished last place in the AL East with a dismal 74-88 record in a disappointing 2024, placing them 12 games out of the Wild Card.
GM Ross Atkins has lost out on top free agents such as Juan Soto, Max Fried, Teoscar Hernandez, and now Corbin Burnes. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays’ roster remains strikingly similar to last season’s. With his offseason ambitions now underwater, Atkins is faced with a heart-wrenching decision. His top two stars, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, are in the last year of their contracts. Atkins has been open to moving Bichette but has been stubborn in clinging to Vladdy.
It’s understandable to want to keep your brightest star, all Blue Jays’ fans feel the same way. However, Atkins has not made a strong effort to keep Vladdy. Atkins made a $340 million offer to keep his hometown hero on the team. With Juan Soto breaking the bank at $765 million, it was clear from the start that wouldn’t be enough. Recent reports indicate Vladdy set his own price for Atkins to meet. Thus far, it has only been met with silence
Right now, Atkins has two clear options: extend him or trade him. With option one hitting a roadblock, option two is quickly emerging as a way to break the stalemate. However, we can’t rule out a third option that Atkins was already open to before Soto signed.
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Atkins cannot be allowed to keep Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in his walk year without an extension
When the offseason began, Atkins was set to offer top dollar to Juan Soto in hopes of inking him. Had that pipe dream become a surreal reality, Vladdy would likely be headed to the door without hearing an extension proposal from Atkins. But with a lineup featuring Soto, Vladdy, and Bichette (when healthy), the Blue Jays’ chances of competing in 2025 would have been favorable. Keeping Vladdy in that instance would have been reasonable. Since that scenario is now impossible, keeping Vladdy without an extension makes no sense. But that won’t stop Atkins from holding onto Vladdy.
The most likely scenario would be Vladdy staying with the Jays until the trade deadline. At that point, Atkins will assess if his team can contend or not. But like many other general managers have discovered, championships always appear closer than they actually are. The best example of this would be Perry Minasian who kept Shohei Ohtani in his walk year only to finish the 2023 season with a 73-89 record, 16 games out of the Wild Card. Had he traded Ohtani prior to the deadline, the haul the Angels would have received would have been massive.
Blue Jays executives cannot allow Atkins to make the same mistake with Vladdy. The Jays are short on talent in their farm system. Keeping Vladdy in his walk year can hobble the Blue Jays for years to come. If Atkins wants to build a future winner, that will most likely start with trading Vladdy.