The Boston Bruins’ Jeremy Swayman is one of two NHL RFA goaltenders yet to sign a new contract, which can change anytime.
As the wait for a deal continues, so does the speculation. But the consensus is that whatever happens, his cap hit could rocket up.
NHL.com’s Dan Rosen suggested Swayman could command over $9 million per season, which might drop slightly if he wants a maximum eight-year deal. Earlier in July, evolving-hockey.com had a 33-percent probability of a four-year contract worth about $6.25 million annually.
As an RFA, Swayman finds himself in a favorable negotiating position, especially since the Bruins have just over $8.6 million in salary cap space to finalize his deal. Both parties chose not to file for arbitration, and the consensus in speculation is a deal will be reached, despite the unlikely possibility of an offer sheet looming.
Whatever the term and however long negotiations take, Swayman’s impressive statistics and the Bruins’ goaltending depth chart guarantee the 25-year-old a hefty raise over his previous $3.475-million cap hit.
With 79 career wins in the regular season, a 2.34 goals-against average, a .919 save percentage and 12 shutouts across 132 NHL games, at least doubling his salary feels like a near certainty. His career-high 44 games last season solidified his role as the Bruins’ starting goalie, leading the team to trade Linus Ullmark to the Ottawa Senators.
But with that trade, Swayman goes from a tandem netminder to a clear-cut No. 1, likely giving him more leverage. Their backups are Joonas Korpisalo, who struggled last season in Ottawa with a 3.06 goals-against average and .890 save percentage, and Brandon Bussi, who has yet to play an NHL game.
Rosen notes that comparisons to other goaltenders highlight Swayman’s potential asking price. For example, Juuse Saros, older by four years, signed an eight-year, $61.92-million contract ($7.74-million cap hit) with the Nashville Predators, while Connor Hellebuyck secured a seven-year, $59.5-million deal ($8.5-million cap hit) with the Winnipeg Jets.
It’s hard to argue that Swayman is worth more than either Saros or Hellebuyck, but the nature of a rising salary cap and the leverage Swayman now has will help his case.
Proving the two sides have been at this for a while, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported in March that negotiations between Swayman and Bruins GM Don Sweeney began.
Frankly, the Bruins should consider themselves lucky that Swayman is willing to return to the table after a tough arbitration process last summer. Even still, Swayman learned something invaluable in that process – business is business. He may approach this negotiation less willing to be flexible or care the Bruins only have $8.6 million in cap space.
In a recent discussion on The Hockey News Wraparound Show, Michael Traikos asked whether Swayman’s contract must start at $7.74 million due to Saros’ deal and if a fair comparable.
Jacob Stoller suggested it would likely begin at $8 million to $8.5 million, emphasizing the importance of a term in any agreement. Stoller warned that the Bruins cannot afford to play games in this negotiation. He argues they put themselves in an awkward spot last year, and pushing too hard could have consequences.
“If you’re Boston, you can’t play around with this,” Stoller said.
Even as an RFA, if Boston attempts to lowball Swayman again, it risks losing the long-term commitment of a key player it has heavily invested in. Ultimately, the Bruins seem to have reduced the possibility of a team-friendly deal, leaving Swayman with little reason to offer concessions.