The Montreal Canadiens have been a dominant team since the trade that saw defenceman Alexandre Carrier join the team from the Nashville Predators.
The Montreal Canadiens have been a dominant team since the trade that saw defenceman Alexandre Carrier join the team from the Nashville Predators.
The last time we checked-in on his results the numbers were jaw-dropping, however, as we noted, it was a very limited sample size. We’re circling back now that we have double the data available, which should give us a better overview of his long-term potential with the Canadiens.
Second-Pairing Impact
He’s no longer controlling north of 70 percent of the shots and scoring chances, that much was to be expected, but he’s still leading the Habs in a bevy of important underlying numbers. With Carrier on the ice, the Canadiens have a 55 percent control of the shots, and are nearing 60 percent in expected goals.
His defensive impact, in particular, has been key. Opposing teams take much fewer shots whenever Carrier is on the ice, owing to his solid positioning which forces players to the outside, and thus limits the scoring opportunities for opponents off the rush.
As for his defensive partner, Kaiden Guhle, the change since Carrier’s arrival has been impossible to ignore. I don’t love the idea of comparing Guhle’s stats prior to Carrier’s arrival with the Habs to the six games since the trade, because we’re dealing with a significant difference in TOI. It also must be said that Carrier is not the only reason the Canadiens have been playing well of late.
With that in mind, here’s the lo-down on Guhle’s 5v5 stats since being paired with Carrier, a move that has allowed the 23-year-old to play on his natural side.
Without Carrier, Guhle controlled a little less than 25 percent of the shots. With Carrier, he is controlling over 54 percent of the shots. The same phenomenon comes into play when examining other important stats.
Without Carrier, he controlled 26 percent of the expected goals, and 33 percent of the high-danger chances.
With Carrier, Guhle is controlling over 56 percent of the expected goals, and 54 percent of the high-danger chances.
That’s not just an impressive change, it’s the hockey equivalent of trading a 1997 Sunfire for a brand-new Bugatti Veyron. Truthfully, Guhle’s improvements aren’t solely because of playing with Carrier. Much of it has to do with avoiding defensive partners who have traditionally struggled to produce above-replacement results.
First Pairing Impact
Going from one top pairing that generally hangs on for dear life to a very solid top-four hasn’t just made Martin St-Louis’ job easier, it has lowered the total chances the Montreal Canadiens allow, providing the same type of benefit to the goaltenders.
Interestingly, it’s the Lane Hutson and Mike Matheson pairing that has yielded the best numbers in the last stretch, not Carrier and Guhle.
They’re nearing a 60 control percent in shots, scoring chances, and expected goals, a consequence of spending less time defending and more time focused on what they do best, quickly driving the play toward the offensive zone.
Again, I am going to remind everyone we’re only discussing six games, which means the numbers are at risk of changing in a hurry.
But for now we can safely declare that trading Carrier for Justin Barron wasn’t just a great example of a general manager cutting his losses and pivoting quickly enough to recoup asset value, it also addressed one of the team’s greatest needs, a stalwart defensive presence who is capable of absorbing important minutes on a very young blue line that usually skews toward the chaotic side of things.
I’d go as far as suggesting Carrier is the exact type of player that most NHL teams desperately require, and that certainly includes the team that traded him to the Habs in the first place.