The ATP Asian swing has been building to one event: the Shanghai Masters.
Since the tournament was first held in 2009 it has become one of the biggest titles to win in the men’s game, with Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, and Andy Murray all lifting multiple titles.
Djokovic returns to the event this season after skipping the tournament’s return in 2023 and, with defending champion Hubert Hurkacz’s absence, may fancy his chances.
However, it is unlikely to be that straightforward, with Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, and Alexander Zverev also vying for the title.
Ahead of action starting on Wednesday, we make our predictions.
Alcaraz lifts title
Alcaraz suffered a painful defeat at the US Open but has looked like a man reborn since then, winning all his singles matches at the Davis Cup and Laver Cup before his run to the China Open final.
After Beijing, he will head to Shanghai, and it is hard to see who could stop him.
The Spaniard has a kind draw early on with Nicolas Jarry and Ugo Humbert the first seeds he is projected to face, before a potential quarter-final against eighth seed Casper Ruud.
That should be navigable for Alcaraz, though he could face a semi-final versus Sinner or Daniil Medvedev.
Either man would not be a comfortable matchup, but they are contests he can – and maybe should – win on his way to a fourth title of 2024.
Djokovic surges
This will be Djokovic’s first ATP event since his early exit in New York, with only a brief Davis Cup foray for the world No 4 since his loss to Alexei Popyrin.
Olympic gold aside, this has not been a vintage year for the Serbian but Shanghai is one of his happiest hunting grounds; no man can match his four titles at the tournament.
Djokovic’s draw is favourable throughout the first week and while a quarter-final against sixth seed Andrey Rublev or ninth seed Grigor Dimitrov would not be easy, he should still be able to pull through.
Second seed Zverev is a significant potential semi-final block but with doubts circling over the German’s health – and his nemesis Taylor Fritz waiting in the last eight – Djokovic’s path could open nicely.
We expect Djokovic to make the final and make his ATP Finals qualification quest a little more straightforward.
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What about Sinner?
At the moment, plenty could be said about Sinner on and off the court – though there is no denying his hard court prowess.
The world No 1 has to be seen as a significant contender to lift this title, though the Italian’s draw is perhaps not as nice as Alcaraz or Djokovic’s pathways.
14th seed Ben Shelton, who beat him in Shanghai a year ago, could await in round four, while he is again expected to face Medvedev in the last eight.
We know Sinner can navigate this draw, but how much energy may he have left ahead of a potential semi-final versus Alcaraz?
A run to the title is far from impossible but may be difficult.
Fritz finds his form
This has been a hugely successful season for American No 1 Fritz, capped off by his run to the US Open final last month.
The world No 7 faltered slightly in Tokyo – his first ATP event since Flushing Meadows – but has had plenty of time to recuperate, and should go deep here.
32nd seed Brandon Nakashima isn’t an easy third round draw, and a fourth round against Jiri Lehecka or Holger Rune should also prove a challenge.
But he has found himself coming out on the right side of such matches more often than not in 2024, and there is no reason he won’t do so again.
Fritz could face Zverev in the last eight and having won three matches against the world No 2 this summer, perhaps he can book a semi-final clash versus Djokovic.
More home success?
There is no doubt that the Asian swing has so far been a hugely successful spell for Chinese ATP players on home soil.
The highlight has been Jerry Shang’s run to a first title in Chengdu, but with Zhang Zhizhen reaching the Hangzhou final, and Bu Yunchaokete making the last four in Beijing, it has been an impressive showing.
All three will be in Shanghai action and, with momentum and a home crowd behind them, we can perhaps expect more impressive performances from the emerging tennis nation.