The third quarter-ish of the Washington Commanders’ season will probably be remembered for the three-game losing streak, which ended with Sunday’s win over the Tennessee Titans. If you had told Washington fans in August that real adversity wouldn’t hit until the third quarter-ish of the season, they probably would have been stoked, but in the moment, the losses hurt more because of how well the team had been playing.
(And before any smart alecks race to the comment section: We know a 17-game season can’t be neatly divided into quarters; if the NFL adds an 18th game, we can move to a six-game system.)
Anyway, in the third quarter-ish, the Commanders completed a sweep of a division rival (the New York Giants), hit that three-game skid (against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys) and got back on track with a blowout (over Tennessee).
Now, Washington is 8-5 with a solid foothold on the NFC’s No. 7 seed. Our projections give the team an 84 percent chance to make the playoffs.
“[I’m] pumped to give the team a break; as a young team, the needle was near empty,” Coach Dan Quinn said Monday at the start of the bye week, adding, “Sometimes the mental fatigue can be as big as the physical, and [the bye will help] really clear the tables for what’s ahead.”
Here’s a look at the Commanders after 13 games:
Judging Jayden
Let’s get through the obvious: After playing like a rookie during the three-game slide, Jayden Daniels looked like himself with a career-high three touchdown passes against Tennessee. He has some huge games on the horizon, including his return to Louisiana to face the New Orleans Saints and a second matchup against Philadelphia’s stout defense. The most important thing is that he stays healthy.
“It’s just a competitive thing,” he said about Stroud, with whom he competed while growing up in Southern California.
In 13 games, Daniels’s stat line is slightly off pace: 2,819 passing yards, 15 touchdowns and six interceptions. (Daniels also has 108 rushing attempts for 590 yards and six touchdowns; Stroud had 39 rushes for 167 yards and three scores.)
While it seems unlikely Daniels will match the statistical passing prowess of Stroud as a rookie, it’s a lofty bar he could chase over the final four weeks.
Other standouts
Terry McLaurin: We are finally seeing what’s possible for the sixth-year wide receiver with a solid and steady quarterback. McLaurin has 61 catches for 896 yards and nine touchdowns, a single-season high. He’s third in the NFL in receiving yards — behind only the Cincinnati Bengals’ Ja’Marr Chase and the Minnesota Vikings’ Justin Jefferson — despite ranking 25th in targets. He’s on pace to approach his season bests in catches (87 in 2020) and yards (1,191, 2022).
Jeremy Chinn: The 26-year-old safety’s gamble is paying off. He said he gave up more money as a free agent because he wanted to play in Quinn’s aggressive, versatile scheme, and he has blossomed into one of the team’s best defenders while making game-changing plays. He has an interception, a forced fumble and two fumble recoveries to go with 86 tackles (three for loss).
“It’s probably the last three or four weeks where he started to really come out vocally and say, ‘Hey, this is my secondary, and you guys have to follow me,’” defensive coordinator Joe Whitt Jr. said before Week 10.
Tress Way: While other players are deserving here — especially corner Mike Sainristil and linebackers Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu — let’s highlight the beloved punter. The longest-tenured Commander was rarely called upon until the third quarter-ish, when he punted 20 times in five games. Against Tennessee, he hit a career milestone, passing Mike Bragg (35,746) for the most punting yards in franchise history (35,759).
Disappointments
Benjamin St-Juste: The 27-year-old impending free agent had one of his worst moments as a pro against Pittsburgh when he allowed wide receiver Mike Williams to run right by him for the game-winning touchdown. Since, the team has rotated him with journeyman Michael Davis.
When the Commanders traded for star corner Marshon Lattimore, they planned to use Lattimore and St-Juste outside and shift Sainristil back inside, where they believe he fits best long term. But now it seems likelier the team will leave Sainristil outside, keep Noah Igbinoghene inside and mix and match corner units based on opponent.
Rookie offensive skill players: Neither second-round tight end Ben Sinnott nor third-round wide receiver Luke McCaffrey has solidified a major offensive role. In the third quarter-ish, McCaffrey’s highest percentage of snaps in a single game was 41 and Sinnott’s was 39. McCaffrey also had a tough drop against Pittsburgh.
The slow development of the rookies isn’t a huge concern yet — the offense is doing just fine — but the Commanders probably would have liked to have gotten more out of them thus far.
Kickers: Austin Seibert solved one of the team’s greatest problems for most of the first half of the season. Through eight games, he was 25 for 27 on field goals and a perfect 22 for 22 on extra points. But then he suffered a hip injury, and he and replacement Zane Gonzalez began to struggle. Since Week 10, they combined to hit just 5 of 8 field goal attempts and 10 of 12 extra points — including Seibert’s brutal miss that could have tied the score after McLaurin’s long touchdown against Dallas.
The team signed Gonzalez to the active roster, suggesting he’s the long-term solution while Seibert is on injured reserve, but the Commanders could also work out kickers during the bye.
Biggest surprise
Chris Rodriguez Jr.: The 2023 sixth-round running back out of Kentucky is making the most of every opportunity. He started the third quarter-ish by stepping in for the injured Brian Robinson Jr. and running 11 times for 52 yards against the Giants. He ended it by stepping in for the injured Austin Ekeler and running 13 times for 94 yards and a touchdown against the Titans. He has impressed with his vision, physicality and reliability.
Rodriguez, 24, still has a tenuous hold on his roster spot and probably doesn’t figure prominently into the team’s long-term plans. But he is turning heads.
“There’s a lot of trust that’s built between him, his teammates, the staff,” Quinn said. “When he’s called upon, he’s really ready to deliver.”
Pressing questions
Can the Commanders finish strong? Washington has occasionally encountered disasters down the stretch. Look at Coach Ron Rivera’s tenure or the end of Robert Griffin III’s rookie year, when his injury in a playoff loss derailed the franchise. The Commanders have an opportunity to boost their fans’ hopes by not only making the playoffs but by finishing strong, especially against elite competition.
How will Lattimore help the defense? The star corner hasn’t played because of a hamstring injury since the team traded for him Nov. 5. He’s expected to return against New Orleans, against his former team, after the bye. When he’s on the field, he could change the entire defense.
Who will stick around from this bridge roster? Washington has nearly 30 impending free agents, including seven starters and a dozen key role players, such as Wagner, St-Juste, backup quarterback Marcus Mariota, Chinn, Igbinoghene, tight ends Zach Ertz and John Bates, wide receivers Noah Brown and Dyami Brown, edge rushers Dante Fowler Jr. and Clelin Ferrell and offensive tackle Cornelius Lucas. The last quarter-ish of the season will be their closing arguments for new contracts, here or elsewhere.
Will the RFK Stadium site bill pass? The legislation that would put D.C. on the table as a potential site for the Commanders’ next stadium is effectively at the goal line with time running out. Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-New York) has told the parties they must hammer out an agreement with Maryland — and Maryland has several demands.
Forecast
The playoffs: If “quarter-ish” wasn’t silly enough, the Commanders might head to a “fifth quarter-ish” in the postseason. But the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Rams are all 6-6, 1½ games behind Washington. The Atlanta Falcons lead the NFC South and are also 6-6, so if the Falcons and Buccaneers both get hot, they could push the Commanders for the NFC’s final playoff spot.
Washington, Atlanta, Arizona and Tampa Bay each have among the league’s easiest remaining schedules, according to Inpredictable, a betting-market analysis site.
For now at least, the odds are Washington will secure the seventh seed and take a trip to Philadelphia or Detroit for the first round of the playoffs