The Houston Astros find themselves in an interesting spot headed into next season.
After trading away Kyle Tucker to the Chicago Cubs and making subsequent moves that likely spell the end of the Alex Bregman era as well, the Astros are almost caught in between a rebuild and still going for it.
Signing Christian Walker indicated they still believe, even without Tucker, that they’re good enough to contend despite not having two of their most prominent players in the fold anymore.
If Houston is going to keep their heads above water and push to continue their run of dominance in the American League West, the starting rotation is going to be a major reason why.
Here is the projected top-five at the start of the 2025 season for the Astros factoring in further signings and/or trades.
Opening Day Starter: LHP Framber Valdez
There’s no surprises here.
While Valdez is understandably seen as a potential trade candidate due to the fact that, similar to Tucker, he will be a free agent after next season, all reporting has indicated the left-hander will remain where he is and lead Houston’s staff in 2025.
The argument could be made that it makes sense to move him given the lack of willingness to hand out long-term deals, but Valdez is still a very solid ace who the Astros have for at least one more year.
No. 2: RHP Hunter Brown
Brown burst onto the scene this season over his 30 starts, posting an ERA of 3.49 with 179 strikeouts in just over 170 innings pitched. With an 11-9 record and a WAR of 2.6, Brown has established himself as a key young piece of this rotation at the age of 26 and will be a major factor for years to come.
Pairing him with Valdez at the top of the unit is a very solid 1-2 punch.
No. 3: RHP Hayden Wesneski
Wesneski was the overlooked addition in the Tucker trade, but he could end up being the best of the haul.
A bullpen move could wind up being in the cards eventually, especially with how righty-heavy the starting rotation already is, but he was acquired with the goal of making him a starter, and it seems more likely than not the team at least gives him a shot there to start the season.
No. 4: RHP Spencer Arrighetti
There’s any number of players that could be put here, but Arrighetti was promising enough in his rookie year that he would likely get the nod over guys like Ronel Blanco and Cristian Javier, who is still coming back from injury.
Arrighetti posted a 7-13 record in his rookie season, but he had a respectable ERA of 4.53 along with intriguing strikeout numbers, fanning 171 over 145 innings.
With 28 starts under his belt, he will only continue to improve, and the chances are they are excited enough about him that he gets the nod.
No. 5: RHP Justin Verlander
In reality, Houston really doesn’t need a reunion with the future Hall of Famer.
They have enough right-handed arms and younger options who could continue to develop if given the chance, but with 2024 being really the first time Verlander has struggled with injuries, his cold market makes him signing a one-year deal to finish his career with Houston the most likely outcome.
Even if he shows he isn’t capable of being a starting MLB pitcher anymore, the veteran presence that Verlander brings makes it at least worth keeping him around.