Shortly after the World Series ends, the Houston Astros front office will be tasked with negotiating with superstar Alex Bregman.
It’d be interesting to watch the multiple-time All-Star leave in free agency, but as the Astros have continued to show, they won’t go above and beyond to keep guys around who they don’t believe will help maximize their window of winning a World Series.
This might be the toughest decision around Major League Baseball this winter, as there are multiple reasons to believe that Bregman could be on his way out.
Suppose Houston doesn’t believe he’s worth the type of money he’s predicted to get, which some have suggested to be nearly $200 million. In that case, there’s a very good chance he might be on his way out after spending his time with the organization since they drafted him in the first round of the 2015 MLB draft.
From a pure production standpoint, keeping the New Mexico native around seems to be the logical thing to do. However, some believe he’s a bit overrated and are worried about paying him like one of the top third basemen in Major League Baseball.
That includes Matt Higgins of Sportsnaut.
“It’s hard to envision Bregman leaving the Houston Astros, but it’s possible as the two-time All-Star hits free agency. Bregman’s OPS and OPS+ have declined the last three seasons, and his walks decreased more than twofold compared to 2023 — from 92 to 44. Bregman will be 31 heading into the 2025 regular season. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden predicts Bregman will receive a seven-year, $185.5 million contract, but teams may hesitate given his declining numbers.”
Higgins focused on the contract predictions for some of the players he named overrated, which is fair and unfair. Bregman has done everything he can throughout his career to get paid like one of the top third basemen in baseball, so if money is the deciding factor here, it’s almost impossible to call him overrated.
He had a rough showing in parts of 2024, perhaps having the worst full campaign of his career. However, he still ended with a 118 OPS+ and hit 26 home runs.
If the slugger had done half of what he did after the first two months of the season throughout the entire year, there’s a very good chance he’d be looking at a $200 million contract as the floor.
Instead, that quiet start has turned a couple of evaluators off him, so it’s only a matter of time before we find out if the Astros are one of them that feel that way.