While it’s easy to argue that should have been the least of their worries considering they finished the regular season tied for the seventh-best ERA (3.81) in Major League Baseball, one could only wonder what that number would have been if they had a competent fifth starter.
Taijuan Walker was a disaster last year, and the options they brought in to try and replace him proved they weren’t ready to be handed the ball every fifth day.
So, the Phillies acquired Jesus Luzardo from the Miami Marlins, buying low on the left-hander coming off an injury-riddled campaign last year even though he showed he’s one of the top arms in the sport when he was healthy in 2023.
On paper, the rotation looks set.
Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola will lead the unit with Ranger Suarez, Cristopher Sanchez and Luzardo slotted somewhere in the mix wherever it makes sense to deploy the three lefties.
But, following a strong return to the mound in the Arizona Fall League, Philadelphia is ready to unleash their superstar pitching prospect Andrew Painter onto the MLB, eyeing a call up time during the summer so he doesn’t exceed his innings limit before an expected playoff run.
When he arrives, that will give the Phillies six starting pitchers, and since they are unlikely to utilize a six-man rotation considering Wheeler’s dislike of it, that means someone is going to see their role get changed.
Matt Gelb of The Athletic thinks it will be Suarez.
“… if anything, I could see them moving Suárez (or a different starter) to the bullpen. But my guess is not everyone stays healthy,” he wrote when asked if the lefty could be moved at the deadline.
The health aspect is crucial here.
Philadelphia has enjoyed a good string of positive variance when it comes to their pitchers avoiding injuries, and for the cynics out there, they might say it’s only a matter of time until that changes.
If everyone does stay off the injured list, though, it’s interesting to see the prediction that Suarez would be the one who gets his role reduced to reliever, but when diving in, it does make sense.
While he’s become a fan favorite for what he’s done as a starting pitching in the playoffs, he began his career in the bullpen and is still working on building up his arm for the workload that’s necessary to pitch at a high level every fifth day 30 times per year.
Suarez was a full-time starter in 2022, making 29 starts and throwing his career-high in innings with 155.1.
The following season, he began the year on the injured list with an elbow strain, not making his first appearance until May before he found himself on the IL again with a hamstring strain.
That resulted in just 22 starts and 125 innings pitched.
This past campaign, Suarez was in the NL Cy Young mix early on, carrying a sizzling 2.27 ERA through the month of June that earned him his first All-Star nod. But in the eight starts after the Midsummer Classic, his ERA was 5.65, which also saw him miss time on the injured list with a lower back issue.
All of that is to say, using the lefty out of the bullpen for the second half of the year might actually allow him to be more effective for this Phillies team.
And with more gas left in the tank, he could still provide those incredible playoff moments, just this time around, he can go deeper into games and not turn things over to the bullpen unit early in the contest.