Bob Stauffer of Oilers Now said “Today is going to be a good day for Oil Country” on Twitter on Tuesday morning. Not long after, Frank Seravalli of Daily Faceoff reported that the Oilers and Leon Draisaitl have agreed to an eight-year contract worth $14 million annually.
The Oilers selected Draisaitl with the third overall pick in the 2014 NHL Draft and he made his debut with the club the following season in 2014-15. Following a breakout performance in the third season of his entry-level contract in 2016-17, Draisaitl agreed to an eight-year contract worth $8.5 million annually as a restricted free agent.
Since then, the native of Cologne, Germany has developed into one of the league’s best forwards. Draisaitl has 347 goals and 850 points over 719 regular season games in the NHL and 108 points over 74 playoff games. He would have been eligible to reach unrestricted free agency for the first time following the 2024-25 season.
Earlier this month, I looked at what we can expect from Draisaitl’s next contract based on the percentage of the salary cap other star forwards have signed for in recent memory. The $14 million annual figure that Seravalli reported aligns with what the likes of Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Nathan MacKinnon, and Auston Matthews earned right before UFA status.
After the 2013-14 season, Bowman again signed Toews and Kane to matching contracts. With the two forwards set to become UFAs the following summer, Toews and Kane both signed eight-year, $84 million deals that were worth 14.7 percent of the cap ceiling. Just as they did a few years earlier, Toews and Kane set a standard for what star forwards could earn when they reached the open market.
The standard that Draisaitl’s agent will point to now when negotiating his client’s unrestricted free agent contract with the Oilers will be 15 percent of the salary cap ceiling, which is what recent Hart Trophy winners Nathan MacKinnon and Auston Matthews got on their latest deals. MacKinnon signed an eight-year, $100.8 million extension with the Colorado Avalanche in September of 2022 and Matthews inked a four-year, $53 million extension with the Toronto Maple Leafs in August of 2023.
Draisaitl’s next contract will begin with the 2025-26 season. We don’t yet know what the salary cap ceiling will be by that point, but Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet reported in September of 2022 that “teams have been given some guidance on where the cap could be going over the next few seasons.” The projection of $88 million for 2024-25 was correct and the projection for 2025-26 is a $92 million cap ceiling.
If both the Oilers and Draisaitl are expecting a $92 million cap ceiling in 2025-26, the first season of his next contract, 15 percent of that total would see him earn a $13.8 million annual salary. Barring him taking a discount, that would top both Matthews at $13.25 million and MacKinnon at $12.6 million and establish Draisaitl as the player with the league’s top cap hit (at least until McDavid’s next deal starts in 2026-27).