First baseman Pete Alonso is still unsigned, with just over a month until pitchers and catchers report to spring training, which naturally suggests he hasn’t yet found a contract offer to his liking. Reports from Jeff Passan of ESPN and Bob Nightengale of USA Today indicate that he will likely pivot to a short-term deal with one or more opt-outs. Nightengale says eight teams, including the Blue Jays and Red Sox, have at least some interest. However, it’s unclear how interested those clubs are, and the fact that Alonso remains available suggests they aren’t bowling him over with aggressive offers.
If Alonso pivots to a short-term deal with opt-outs, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise. Alonso’s agent, Scott Boras, went down this road last offseason with Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell, and Jordan Montgomery. All four found markets below their expectations and remained unsigned beyond the holidays. They eventually agreed to short-term deals with an opt-out or two, with slight variations for each individual.
There were reasons to expect Alonso to follow that path. Alonso reportedly turned down an extension offer from the Mets in the summer of 2023 valued at $157M over seven years. He still had one arbitration season remaining and ultimately earned $20.5M. He was effectively offered $137M for six free-agent seasons and turned it down. In November of 2023, it was reported that he was looking to top the recent deals for Freddie Freeman and Matt Olson, who signed for $162M and $168M, respectively.
But the league has generally shied away from one-dimensional right-handed-hitting sluggers like Alonso. His defense isn’t incredibly well-regarded, and he’s not a burner on the basepaths. His walk rates are decent but not exceptional. Alonso has huge home run power, but Freeman and Olson rank higher than him in glovework and drawing free passes.
While Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols each got over $200M, those deals were over a decade ago. More recently, Paul Goldschmidt’s $130M extension from the Cardinals is the best deal for a righty-swinging first baseman. Kris Bryant got $182M as a defensively limited outfielder, but that deal turned sour very quickly. Other bat-first guys like J.D. Martinez and Nick Castellanos signed for the low nine figures.
Alonso also hit free agency on a bit of a down note. He had hit .261/.349/.535 for a 137 wRC+ through the 2022 season but slashed .229/.324/.480 over the past two seasons for a 122 wRC+. That’s still an above-average offense, but a team might wonder if Alonso could reverse that trend by entering his age-30 season. He also rejected a qualifying offer and is tied to the associated penalties for any club that signs him.
Considering all that, it seemed possible there would be a discrepancy between Alonso’s asking price and what teams would be willing to offer. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR considered predicting Alonso for a deal similar to what Bellinger ultimately signed with the Cubs last offseason, which was $80M over three years with two opt-outs. At the start of the offseason, that seemed too bold a stance, so we backed down and went with $125M over five years, noting that the Bellinger path was a real possibility. Last month, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported that such a deal was becoming increasingly likely, and this week’s report adds to that.
Returning to the Mets is still possible, as they haven’t done anything to fill Alonso’s spot at first base. It’s been speculated that they could move Mark Vientos over from third since his defense at the hot corner isn’t strong, and he can play first. They could then cover third base internally with a combination of Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio or Luisangel Acuña, or perhaps an external addition like Alex Bregman. However, the door to Alonso’s return is still open.
Other clubs have been tied to Alonso, but the fits are mostly a bit awkward. The Yankees reportedly had Alonso on their list of backup plans if they didn’t sign Juan Soto but eventually signed Goldschmidt to cover first base. The Giants could be a fit, but they have Bryce Eldridge waiting in the wings. The Angels have reportedly considered bringing in Alonso and moving incumbent first baseman Nolan Schanuel to the outfield, a position he hasn’t played as a professional.
The Jays and Red Sox are also somewhat inelegant fits. Boston already has a corner infield logjam with Rafael Devers at third, Triston Casas at first and Masataka Yoshida a candidate for a regular run as the designated hitter. Since Devers is a weak defender at third, they have considered adding someone like Bregman or Nolan Arenado and moving Devers to first, which has led to Casas and Yoshida being in trade rumors. Signing Alonso would jam this situation even further and make it harder to get Devers off third. Perhaps that wouldn’t be such a big deal on a short-term deal that the club expects him to opt out of, but it can’t be assured that a player will eventually use his opt-out. The Cubs recently signed Bellinger with this logic and saw him decide to stick around, which led to a salary-dump trade to the Yankees.
The Jays have Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as their everyday first baseman. He can play third base but only has 14 appearances there over the past five years, most of those coming as the Jays played out the string in 2024. With Guerrero slated for free agency next winter, perhaps he and Alonso could share first base and DH for a year, with Alonso taking over first in 2026, though it would be a clunky fit for the 2025 season. The Jays also hope to extend Guerrero, which would be complicated by bringing Alonso into the fold.
Financially, RosterResource has the Jays just over $10M away from last year’s payroll and the competitive balance tax, but it seems they still have some money to spend. They were reportedly involved with Corbin Burnes before he signed with the Diamondbacks and had an offer made to Anthony Santander. RosterResource has the Red Sox, which is almost $30M shy of the CBT, and they might even be willing to cross the line this year.