The Philadelphia Phillies are a veteran-led team with multiple star players. With the amount of stars on the roster, many players have expensive contracts.
Being veterans, too, there could be a scenario in the next few years where Philadelphia has a couple of contracts that might not look too pretty.
That’s the unfortunate reality of having an older team. But if the ball club wins a World Series, those contracts won’t look as bad one day.
Even now, it’s tough to say that the Phillies have any bad contracts. Sure, some guys haven’t played up to the money they signed for, but most of them have been very good.
Looking ahead, Philadelphia has to be cautious in the moves it makes. The Phillies have their core locked up for much of the next few campaigns, which is exciting but could be a disaster if contracts don’t play out as they expect them to.
Zachary D. Rymer of Bleacher Report believes that will be the case with Aaron Nola, predicting him to have a “nightmare” contract by 2027.
Rymer’s reasoning lies in the fact that his ERA has toggled back and forth the past four seasons. It was 4.63 in 2021, followed by a 3.25 in 2022.
In 2023, which led up to the seven-year, $172 million deal he signed with Philadelphia, he had a 4.46 ERA. Last season he got the ERA back down to 3.57.
In his eyes, Nola is getting more hittable and two particular numbers back it up.
“His rate of 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings was his lowest since he first broke in with the Phillies in 2015. He also served up 30 home runs for a second year in a row,” Rymer wrote.
Nola, 31 years old, has been one of the unluckiest pitchers in Major League Baseball over the past few years. He’s consistently finished with a FIP lower than his ERA, which indicates he’s much better than his ERA shows.
Plus, factoring in the amount of innings he throws and strikeout numbers, there’s reason to believe even at 34 years old, he’ll be elite.
Even if he isn’t as dominant as in 2018, Nola should be a sub-3.75 ERA arm if he continues to throw the baseball how he has.
Philadelphia will need that to be the case. The front office has done an excellent job building the pitching staff. Nola is a significant part of that.
He’s expensive, and there are always worries about that, but until he starts to decline, there shouldn’t be any reason to worry.