The St. Louis Cardinals have been surrounded by trade rumors all winter, as they are seemingly set to embrace a period centered around shedding payroll.
This can be attributed to a variety of factors. Competitively, St. Louis hasn’t been a postseason team for two consecutive seasons, and they haven’t progressed further than the Wild Card rounds since 2019.
From a revenue standpoint, the Cards have been part of the ongoing Bally Sports saga, which has been well documented in terms of how it’s affected teams financially for the past few seasons.
In an end-of-season news conference, Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak described the upcoming 2025 season as a “reset” where the focus wouldn’t be fielding the best possible roster.
And in a late October report, Cardinals insider John Denton said he feels their payroll could be cut by a third next season, with some familiar faces set to be out the door.
After Paul Goldschmidt hit free agency, the center of attention this offseason for St. Louis has been around the trade market, specifically where third baseman Nolan Arenado will call home in 2025.
But the fact of the matter is if the Cardinals are going to cut payroll by as much as they are speculated to want to, then dealing Arenado’s $21 million hit to the budget won’t cut it alone. And in all likelihood, they’ll have to eat a considerable amount of what he’s owed if they expect to get something worthwhile back in return for him.
While eliminating Goldschmidt’s $26 million per year salary certainly helps now that he’s moved on in free agency, there’s still work to do in St. Louis if their near-$176 million payroll from 2024 is going to shrink even more next season.
So with all that in mind, here are Cardinals besides Arenado that could be traded at some point in 2025.
Cardinals Trades That Make Sense This Winter
Erick Fedde
When the Cardinals acquired Fedde at the trade deadline last summer, they were chasing an NL Wild Card spot.
But now that they seemed poised for a reset, suddenly the 31-year-old lefty with mediocre underlying metrics doesn’t seem like the commodity he once was.
This is especially the case when two top-100 prospects, Quinn Mathews (Just Baseball’s No. 27 prospect) and Tink Hence (Just Baseball’s No. 47 prospect), are projected to make an impact on the big league club in 2025.
Yet, despite metrics like a 34th-percentile strikeout rate and a 39th-percentile xBA, Fedde is coming off a very solid season in 2024.
In 31 starts split between the Cardinals and the White Sox, he threw 177.1 innings with a 3.30 ERA, a 3.86 FIP, a 1.16 WHIP and a .230 AVG against.
And with only one year at $7.5 million left on his contract, Fedde offers the Cardinals a way to cash in on a 2024 performance that he may not be able to replicate in 2025. Even if he regresses, he still offers potential trade suitors a very affordable middle-of-the-rotation option.
With starting pitching being at such a premium this winter, Fedde could be a very enticing option for teams looking for potential short-term value.
Trade interest is reportedly buzzing around Fedde of late from a few teams, making this move look more like a possibility as we approach the new year.
Steven Matz
Matz, who was listed in that same report as Fedde as someone who has had trade suitors of his own, could be another name that Mozeliak and Co. look to deal this offseason.
But the Cardinals aren’t in the same scenario with Matz as they are with Fedde. Matz is two years older, $5 million more expensive in 2025 and coming off a poor season where he was plagued with back issues.
In 12 appearances (seven of which were starts), the veteran lefty threw to the tune of a 5.08 ERA, a 4.88 FIP, a 1.44 WHIP and a .283 AVG against in 44.1 innings of work.
That being said, Matz is only a year removed from being a sub-4.00 ERA arm in 2023. And while 2024 wasn’t great, he did show some promise in some metrics, like a favorable 30.7% hard-hit rate and an AVG exit velocity of just 87.6 mph.
His inability to string consecutive successful seasons together in recent years should motivate St. Louis’ front office to move off of him sooner rather than later to at least get some sort of return for him in the final year of his contract.
And again, the starter’s market is high priced right now. So, a one-year $12.5 million commitment for someone with some recent solid seasons (2021 and 2023) to his credit could be a fairly enticing option for teams that have had success getting the most out of arms at the major league level.
Cardinals Trades That Make Sense for Some Point in 2025
Ryan Helsley
Earlier this month, the Cardinals front office seemed to water down any trade talks surrounding Helsley.
But there are still reportedly interested parties inquiring about him of late, and while Mozeliak may say he wants to keep his 49-save ninth-inning man in 2025, he also stated that they’ll “remain open-minded” to the possibility of a trade.
Whether that happens this winter or at some other point in 2025, a deal for the 30-year-old closer at the peak of his powers seems like the logical move for a resetting club.
We’ve touched on the MLB-leading 49 saves Helsley threw in 2024, but his season looks more impressive than just those save numbers. In 66.1 innings of work, the righty posted a 2.04 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, a .206 AVG against and a near 30% K-rate (29.7%)
It’s now the third consecutive season that he’s posted a sub-2.50 ERA, a WHIP of 1.10 or lower, a sub-.210 AVG against and a K-rate of 29% or higher.
With the number of high-end closers still on the open free agent market, like Tanner Scott, Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estévez, it’s understandable why the Cardinals front office may want to hold on to Helsley amid such a crowded and unknown market.
But whether it’s this winter or during the season, if the Tanner Scott trade to the Padres at the 2024 trade deadline taught us anything, it’s that a relief arm like Helsley can garner quite the return, even in his final year of control.
A move like this seems like a no-brainer for a team in a reset to make.
The Longshot Deals
Sonny Gray
Gray falls into the same category as Arenado when it comes to a potential trade: He’s an aging and expensive star with a no-trade clause that will likely require money to be retained by St. Louis in any deal for him.
But that’s not to say that Gray hasn’t been worth the investment for the Cardinals. While he didn’t have the same numbers in 2024 as he did in 2023, when he finished as the runner-up in AL Cy Young voting, he still turned in a more than respectable year on the mound.
In 166.1 innings across 28 starts last season, the now 35-year-old pitched to a 3.84 ERA, a 3.12 FIP, a 1.09 WHIP, a .226 AVG against and a 30.3% strikeout rate.
And despite the jump of over a run in ERA from 2023 to 2024, there were a lot of metrics in which Gray actually posted better totals compared to his near Cy Young year. His WHIP dropped six points to under 1.10 for the first time since 2019, and his strikeout rate rose 6%, placing him in the 91st percentile of all league arms.
While that $25 million price tag is a lot, and the $35 million it rises to the following year makes this a tougher trade, 2025 seems as good a time as ever to test the trade market and try to deal the veteran star before he gets too far into his thirties.
Ultimately the choice lies with Gray, and reports suggest that his preference may be to stay in St. Louis, but perhaps he can be convinced like Arenado has been to entertain a move away to the right suitor.
And if that’s the case, the Cardinals should try to get as much back while Gray’s value is still high, in their pursuit to make room for their young talent.
Willson Contreras
Like Gray, Contreras could also be a tricky piece to move with his full-no trade clause, with MLB insider Katie Woo reporting last month that he has a desire to stay in St. Louis regardless of the team’s competitive status.
But if Contreras can be enticed away from the Cardinals, then maybe this could be a move worth exploring.
Contreras hasn’t been the Yadier Molina replacement behind the dish that many thought he could have been after signing a five-year, $87.5 million contract ahead of the 2023 season.
He’s been moved in and out of the catcher’s role, and now the plan is to play him at first base with Iván Herrera slated to start at catcher in 2025.
But while he hasn’t been their saving grace defensively, offensively Contreras might be coming off his best season at the plate, injuries aside.
In 358 plate appearances across 84 games, he hit .262 with an .848 OPS and a career-high 140 wRC+.
With his hitting stock sky-high, Contreras would surely generate a lot of interest if the Cardinals made him available.
And who knows, maybe he changes his mind if the right deal comes along during the season to entice him out of St. Louis.
It’s Worth Having the Conversation
Lars Nootbaar
Now we move to names that currently have little to no trade buzz surrounding them and perhaps could make sense for the Cardinals to keep unless they receive an offer that blows them away. Nootbaar is one of these guys.
The 27-year-old has continued to decline from the 123 wRC+ player he was in 2022 and saw his AVG, OBP and SLG all drop to some degree from 2023 to 2024.
In 405 plate appearances last season, he slashed .244/.342/.417 with a 114 wRC+ and a 1.7 fWAR.
But Nootbaar is a data darling, with a disciplined approach at the plate (100th-percentile chase rate and 98th-percentile walk rate) and the ability to hit the ball hard (91st-percentile hard-hit rate and 88th-percentile AVG exit velocity).
And with three years of team control remaining while still being under 30, Nootbaar holds considerable value at a cheap price. When you consider the fact there isn’t a huge amount of minor league prospect competition to challenge him for ABs, the Cardinals could demand that much higher a price for him knowing they don’t have to move him.
Nootbaar should still project as an everyday outfielder for the Cards. But trading a younger bat with multiple years of control like him could help them bring back some position player prospects to better round their system out between pitching and offense.
Brendan Donovan
Donovan is another name that makes complete sense for St. Louis to keep this year.
While he has fallen off a bit at the plate from his 2022 form, when he posted a 127 wRC+, he was still an above-average and versatile player around the diamond in 2024.
He hit .278 with a .759 OPS and 115 wRC+, posting a career-high 3.2 fWAR, more than doubling his total from last year.
His positional versatility cannot be overlooked either, as he played games at second base, third base, left field and right field in 2024.
Donovan had some of the best contact skills in baseball in 2024 with a 97th-percentile strikeout rate. He is also an above-average defender who had six OAA this past year.
So, with all those positives, plus three years of affordable control left, there’s definitely an opportunity for the Cardinals to turn Donovan into a nice haul of future talent to possibly increase the number of position player prospects in their system.
St. Louis will also have to account for the fact that by 2026 they could have Masyn Winn, Nolan Gorman, Just Baseball’s No. 24 overall prospect JJ Wetherholt, and No. 100 overall prospect Thomas Saggese all potentially needing big-league at-bats in the infield. And then in the outfield, they could have names like Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson and Victor Scott, along with Nootbaar, to find ABs for.
With all of these names being younger options than Donovan, the Cards may look to cash in sooner rather than later on the nearly 28-year-old utility man while they can still get a prime return for him.