Fans of the Vancouver Canucks have been warned to prepare for any conclusion to the season’s ongoing controversy.
Elliotte Friedman already infamously reported that GM Patrik Allvin and Co. may trade one of Elias Pettersson and JT Miller, or they may trade both of them, or they may trade neither.
And, hey, you can’t say he’s wrong about that.
But there’s probably more thought to be put in here than literally just laying every possible outcome on the table. Some outcomes are going to be more likely than others, and some are definitely going to be better outcomes for the Canucks themselves.
From where we’re sitting, the best possible outcome to this situation is still the ‘none of the above’ option, as in trading neither Pettersson nor Miller. Keeping both on the team and on the roster is really the only way to go if the Canucks want to stick to the current mission at hand.
Oddly enough, it has less to do with Pettersson and Miller themselves, and more to do with Quinn Hughes. It has become readily apparent this season, if it wasn’t already, that Hughes is the best player in Vancouver franchise history. Honestly, it’s getting difficult to argue anything to the contrary at this point. If the Canucks want to achieve hockey’s ultimate glory, it stands to reason that their best chance will come during Hughes’ own best years. Having just turned 25 and deep in the running for the Hart Trophy, those best years are now.
We don’t know when Hughes’ true peak will be hit, but we can say with confidence that he’s in his prime. We don’t know how long that prime will last, but we do know that the Canucks have him under contract for this season and the next two.
The Canucks’ competitive window may last longer than Hughes’ current contract. But no one can guarantee that. And even if it does, that doesn’t change the fact that the Canucks’ best opportunity to make something of that window is right here, right now, while Hughes is prime, more-than-reasonably-priced, and outright dominant on the ice.
Seriously, we can’t belabour this point enough. By definition, you only get one ‘greatest of all-time,’ and the Canucks don’t just have their G.O.A.T. on the roster right now, they have him at a bargain cap hit of $7.85 million.
Again, we can’t say that the Canucks will never receive another opportunity like this. But we can say that they definitely shouldn’t count on it. And we can also say that it behooves the Canucks to make the absolute most out of what they’ve got on hand.
Which brings us back to Pettersson and Miller.
The fact of the matter is that hockey is a team sport, and individuals do not win championships. If they did, Connor McDavid would have won something by now.
Teams typically need a strong defence to win, and so having Hughes obviously plays a major factor in the Canucks competing. But as much as that blueline presence is a requirement, so too is a team being strong down the middle.
Teams just don’t win Stanley Cups anymore without high-quality centreS, and we are emphasizing the plural there. Teams have won without high-quality starting goaltenders in recent years, they’ve certainly won without top-notch wingers, and one could also argue that a team or two has won that did not possess a true #1 defender.
But teams don’t win without high-quality centres.
Last year’s champs, the Florida Panthers, had Aleksander Barkov and whichever of Sams Reinhart or Bennett were playing centre at the time.
2023’s Vegas Golden Knights had Jack Eichel, Chandler Stephenson, AND William Karlsson.
The 2022 Colorado Avalanche had Nathan MacKinnon and Nazem Kadri (in a career year, no less).
The 2020 and 2021 Tampa Bay Lightning, who won in two consecutive years, did so with Brayden Point, Anthony Cirelli, and sometimes Steven Stamkos down the middle.
We could go on, but the trend is fairly well-established all the same. Teams don’t win Cups without clear-cut 1Cs. They don’t even seem to win Cups without also having the kind of ‘2C’ who could reasonably be a 1C on plenty of other teams.
And, in having both Pettersson and Miller on the roster – or, at least, when both are on the roster and playing close to their best – that’s exactly what the Canucks have.
That means the best chance they’ll have of actually winning something is in having all three of Hughes, Pettersson, and Miller in the fold.
Now, it must be said that no one is talking about losing either centre for nothing. Trades can obviously bring assets back in return, and there’s no rule that says the Canucks couldn’t trade one of their centres for another centre, and thus come out mostly even.
Except, because of everything we’ve already outlined here, centres are incredibly valuable. It stands to reason that no one would be eager or even willing to trade a better centre than either Petterson or Miller in return for them, because why would they?
Even getting a lesser centre back may be tricky. There was a report earlier in the week that the New York Rangers had offered Mika Zibanejad back in return for Miller. Zibanejad both makes more money than Miller and scores significantly less, in addition to possessing a far less well-rounded game.
It wasn’t a good offer. But it was probably about as good a centre as could be hoped for in return. Teams don’t trade quality centres unless they feel they have to.
Trading either Pettersson or Miller for a return that does not include a centre of equal value almost certainly equates to the Canucks being a less Cup-ready team. The next best centre on the roster is Pius Suter, who might be having a career season, but should not be even close to a 2C on a competitive team.
The best centre coming through the pipeline is Aatu Räty, but he projects into more of a middle-six role. There’s no one of note behind him, and any centre the Canucks were to draft now would not be ready to make an impact before the end of Hughes’ contract.
Basically, the Canucks’ odds of trading Pettersson and Miller and not winding up weaker at the centre position are basically nil. And becoming weaker at the centre position means lessening their own odds of winning a championship.
That’s why the best outcome, and the one that those who want to see the Canucks achieve glory should be rooting for, is one in which both Pettersson and Miller remain in Vancouver.