The signing of Christian Walker by the Houston Astros might have brought on a case of deja vu for the fan base since it was another high-priced contract for an aging first base slugger.
The three-year, $60 million contract handed out to him has shades of the $58.5 million they gave Jose Abreu for the same length ahead of the 2023 season.
Despite having a clear need at the position, fans might be a little weary of this deal considering Walker is also in his mid-30s when the upcoming campaign begins and the last one they gave out of this magnitude turned into one of the worst signings in team history, if not all of Major League Baseball.
But, Walker’s advanced stats show a player who is still peaking.
Last year, his average bat speed was 75 mph, good for a top 25 finish among all hitters.
While this is a new stat that has been tracked by Baseball Savant, the list above him is littered with some of the best offensive players in the sport, a great sign that he’ll be able to keep up his production from the past three seasons where he has had his best output.
During that time, he slashed roughly .250/.332/.481 with a total of 95 homers and 281 RBI, in addition to producing an OPS+ above 120 in each campaign.
Walker’s barrel rate has also been in the 82nd, 75th and 90th percentiles, allowing him to put up hard hit rates in the 72nd, 47th and 86th percentiles.
His strikeout totals are high on paper with over 125 in each of the past three years, but his chase rate was only above 25% one time during that span while his walk rate was in the 70th percentile.
Walker gets on base and is productive, and while Abreu’s numbers looked great coming into his Astros tenure, his advanced stats showed a different story with a barrel rate that was in decline and a chase rate that was routinely above the 30% mark.
All of this is without even mentioning Walker’s defense, something that will be a huge plus for Houston and their aging star second baseman Jose Altuve.
Nobody has been worth more Outs Above Average at first base than Walker during the past three years, evident by his three consecutive Gold Glove awards, so compared to Abreu, who was worth minus-7 OAA before signing with the Astros, that already is an upgrade in that aspect.
Fans might be nervous about this deal based on past history, but the slugger should be a huge upgrade at the plate and in the field compared to what they have gotten the past couple seasons.