Where are the gaps in the Maple Leafs’ prospect pool?

We’ve previously assessed the state of the Toronto Maple Leafs’ prospect pool, as it relates to the rest of the league. Easton Cowan, Fraser Minten and Ben Danford aim to form the next cohort of Maple Leafs, with Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander firmly established as the team’s pillars.

Cowan was a home-run selection for the Maple Leafs, representing excellent return on value with the No. 28 pick in the 2023 NHL Draft, winning OHL MVP and OHL playoff MVP honours with the London Knights last season. Minten made the team out of training camp, then was returned to the WHL after going scoreless in four games, while Danford could eventually graduate to the NHL in a few years, widely considered one of the best players in his age cohort since the group was publicly scouted.

There’s some room for optimism, but there are also major gaps in the Maple Leafs’ prospect pool, primarily on the blue line. Danford represents the highest upside among Toronto’s defence prospects, but he’s also still a few years away from graduating from the OHL, and will continue to improve offensively against his peers. Topi Niemela has been widely considered Toronto’s most pro-ready defenceman, although this upcoming season could dictate his professional prognosis — more simply, Niemela’s been expected to graduate to the NHL for the better part of a year, and his true ceiling will be revealed shortly.

Daily Faceoff’s Steven Ellis provided comprehensive analysis of every team’s prospect pools, addressing their respective strengths and weaknesses. Here’s Ellis’s evaluation of the Maple Leafs’ weaknesses, following the 2024 NHL Draft:

Despite making a solid pickup in Ben Danford this year, the Leafs lack a real difference-maker on the point. I think both he and Topi Niemela could end up on the bottom pairing, or maybe Niemela earns some power-play time eventually. But they have their strengths and weaknesses and I don’t see either of them straying from the path. Patching up the blueline in the draft is going to be hard with a lack of picks, so don’t expect this to change anytime soon. But maybe I’ll be wrong and both Danford and Niemela will develop into more crucial pieces – I just don’t think any scouts expect that to happen.

It’s not all bad in theory — and in some ways, if Niemela proves capable of graduating into a bottom-pair defenceman for the Maple Leafs, it will represent the type of internal development the team hasn’t seen since former first-rounders Timothy Liljegren and Rasmus Sandin become NHL mainstays. Noah Chadwick appears to be a steal in the making, cracking Canada’s World Junior Summer Showcase roster and the 2023 sixth-rounder signed his entry-level contract in December.

Given that the Maple Leafs have effectively used past trade deadlines as an opportunity to trade future picks for rentals, it’s incumbent upon new director of scouting Mark Leach to replenish the depth and quality within the system. Beyond Danford, Niemela and Chadwick — potentially — the Maple Leafs lack quality prospects on the back end and it could be a long process that requires patience. Toronto doesn’t have its 2025 first, third or fourth-round selections in what’s expected to be a class full of depth and quality throughout the cohort.

Wes Clark appeared to have a tell, or perhaps it’s sheer coincidence, but under his supervision, the Maple Leafs targeted players from the OHL who showed significant improvement during their draft year as Cowan and Danford fit that profile to a tee. It’s unclear if Leach has any preferences, but he’s widely regarded as one of the best evaluators in the business, with decades of experience with the Dallas Stars and Detroit Red Wings. And it will be a long, patient process as the Maple Leafs look to find their next wave of future defencemen.