Why the Oilers would be taking a significant gamble if they stick with their current goaltending tandem

When it comes to the Edmonton Oilers, can they win a Stanley Cup with their current goaltending tandem of Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard? Absolutely. After all, they were only a single game away from doing so last season.

But, what is the probability that they can do it again? What is the likelihood that Skinner and Pickard can be reliable enough for the Oilers to win a cup? For me, this is an entirely different question.

Now, to win hockey games, you need to outscore your opponent. So, winning games boils down to how well you score goals and how well you prevent goals against. From there, goal prevention can then be split into two aspects: “defence,” which is how well skaters limit quality shots against, and “goaltending,” which is how well the goaltenders stop the shots that do get through.

On the one hand, the Oilers are one of the best defensive teams in the league.

Per Natural Stat Trick, the Oilers have allowed 9.3 high-danger chances against per 60 minutes of play; that is the best rate in the league. In simpler terms, no NHL team has allowed fewer high-quality shots than the Oilers’ skater group this season. A keen observer may note that Natural Stat Trick’s scoring chance model has some flaws, as it does not incorporate pre-shot movement data (as the NHL doesn’t make it publicly available), but luckily, we also have a glimpse of data from CSA Hockey, a proprietary model that does utilize that sort of data. And, per their model, the Oilers still remain second in the league in high-percentage chances allowed per game. Thus, whether we use public or private models, we arrive at the exact same conclusion that the Oilers are an elite defensive team.

But, what about the goaltending?

This season, the Oilers rank 15th in the NHL in save percentage, and 18th in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (I will use both SV% and GSAx in this article, but note that I prefer GSAx as it accounts for shot quality unlike SV%). At a glance, it seems that the Oilers have received league-average netminding overall. So, what’s the big issue here? Isn’t this what we all wanted?

For me, it primarily boils down to one thing; consistency.

In the aggregate, Stuart Skinner’s results are quite good, if not even great. Throughout the past three seasons, Skinner has saved roughly 38 goals above expected per EvolvingHockey, ranking 11th in the NHL and only marginally behind two-time Stanley Cup winner Andrei Vasilevskiy. But, my issue with Skinner comes with his “streakiness.”

There are times in which Skinner has played exceptionally well. This was on display during Edmonton’s 16-game win streak last season and in the Western Conference Final against the Dallas Stars. Edmonton’s skater group did not defend well in Game 6 of those WCF, but it was Skinner’s outstanding performance that propelled them to the Cup Final.

But on the other hand, we have also seen stretches of some pretty disastrous play from him. For instance, Skinner’s performance against the Canucks last spring nearly single-handedly cost the Oilers that series, while he has also been one of the league’s worst goalies at the beginning of each of the past two seasons.

The graphic below demonstrates the point that I am making here in further detail:

The inconsistency here is what concerns me. Of course, one may argue that nearly every goalie in the league has consistency issues to some extent, but Skinner tends to have stretches of either flat-out elite performance, or some of the absolute worst goaltending in the entire league, with hardly any middle ground. So yes, practically no goalie is at their absolute best for the entirety of a full season, but very few starting goalies on cup-contending teams have stretches of play as awful and team-crushing as Skinner often has.

There is also another red flag in Skinner’s numbers worth noting (initially pointed out to me by @StonyOil on Twitter); his performance against top-ten teams in the league. Here’s an overview:

Skinner has played a total of thirteen games against teams that currently rank top-ten in the NHL standings this season. In those 13 games, he has allowed over 8 goals more than expected, posting an atrocious 0.871 save percentage. I believe the primary reason for these results is that the biggest weakness in Skinner’s game is his lateral movement, as he often struggles at stopping shots that come off cross-slot or royal-road passes. Typically, the teams that excel at these sorts of passes are amongst the best in the league, so these results make sense.

But regardless of what the exact reason is, this is a concerning trend. Thus, there are several red flags in Skinner’s numbers that must be noted, even if the aggregate results are strong.

With all of that in mind, I do think that some fans are overly harsh against Skinner individually.

At the end of the day, Skinner is a $2.6M goalie who has been well worth his cap hit and, originally, was not even intended to be Edmonton’s starter in the first place. He was initially starting out as Jack Campbell’s backup in 2022-23, but following Campbell’s disastrous tenure in Edmonton, Skinner was forced to be Edmonton’s starter not on merit but due to a lack of better options. As an individual player, he shouldn’t receive so much criticism for a role the organization has put him in.

In my opinion, which is largely based on these results, Skinner is more of a “1A/1B” goaltender that works best in a tandem with a goalie of similar capability, someone who can split the workload with Skinner, reduce the pressure on him, and reliably cover for him when he struggles (I’d also argue that limiting the pressure/workload on Skinner would improve his consistency). Thus, I don’t think the Oilers should necessarily pursue a replacement for Skinner at the 2025 trade deadline. Of course, it’s fantastic news if they do find an upgrade, but the current trade market does not make that a very realistic possibility.

Instead, I believe they should be looking to upgrade on Calvin Pickard.

There are several options that could be potentially available, with Utah goaltender Karel Vejmelka being my personal top trade target. Vejmelka’s raw career SV% is unimpressive, but that’s largely due to Arizona/Utah’s subpar defence. He has an excellent +17 GSAx in his past three seasons (comparatively, Pickard is at -1.7), and although he is not a world-beater by any means, he could fare quite well in a 50/50 tandem with Skinner. Additionally, if Detroit is selling at the trade deadline, perhaps one of Cam Talbot or Alex Lyon could be available, both of whom would at least be upgrades on Pickard. Even John Gibson could be an option, although Gibson is a much more ambitious target and a potential trade would be fully reliant on contract retention and trade cost.

Now, I understand that this is not a popular stance, as Pickard has a 13-4 record this season as Edmonton’s backup and is reportedly well-liked in Edmonton’s dressing room. At the current moment, it doesn’t seem that Edmonton is keen on replacing him.

But, similar to Skinner, Pickard is playing in a role not originally intended for him. Initially, Pickard was signed to be Edmonton’s third-string goalie, but Jack Campbell’s disastrous play practically forced Edmonton to make a change, and thus, the Oilers recalled Pickard to be Skinner’s backup in November of 2023 and he has been deployed in that position ever since.

My main concern with Pickard is his lack of a reliable track record. Prior to his tenure in Edmonton, he was primarily an AHL goaltender, and his time in Edmonton has not provided sufficient evidence that he could be a dependable backup for the postseason. Take a look at his results against playoff teams below:

Pickard has played in 15 games against teams in a playoff spot in the past 2 seasons, 5 of them being relief appearances. In those 15 games, he holds a 0.894 save percentage, allowing roughly 5 goals more than expected. If you entirely remove those relief appearances, it goes down to a -6.1 GSAx and a 0.889 SV%.

We know that Skinner can be prone to falling apart, and it has occurred several times in the playoffs. So while Pickard can win games against teams at the bottom of the standings, to what extent can Pickard reliably step up during the postseason if/when Skinner were to struggle?

Of course, we did see Pickard come in and provide solid net-minding in Games 5 and 6 of the second round against Vancouver last spring. Full credit to him. However, relating back to my point at the very beginning of this piece, what is the probability that he can do this again? His overall track record against NHL playoff teams does not inspire much hope; is that two-game sample size against Vancouver really enough to completely outweigh it?

Again, I will clarify that the Oilers can still win a cup with this tandem. There is absolutely a solid chance that Connor McDavid could be passing the cup to Skinner and Pickard in late June this year, and it would be highly unwise to think otherwise. However, there is also a very realistic possibility that Skinner breaks down in the playoffs and Pickard is not sufficient to cover for him. It is extremely possible that the difference between the Oilers and an opposing team in a tight playoff series is ultimately goaltending, again.

Thus, the argument being made here is not that it is impossible for Edmonton to win a cup with Stuart Skinner. Rather, it’s that Edmonton’s management needs to seriously consider the probability of the situation. They should be prepared for the scenario that Skinner falls apart in the playoffs as he has often done in the past, because betting the team’s cup chances on the hope that Skinner goes on one of his hot runs and/or that Pickard can reliably step up again if he struggles is a very risky gamble to make, one that could easily result in an early playoff exit.

All things considered, the Oilers rank 5th in the NHL in goals, top-2 in skater defence metrics, but 18th in goals saved above expected. So, why not address your biggest area for improvement and strengthen your chances of a Stanley Cup? Why take this significant gamble in the final year that McDavid and Draisaitl cost $21M against the cap?

At the end of the day, the margin for error in the NHL playoffs is razor-thin. The slightest deficiency or flaw can end up being the difference between a series win and a loss. Edmonton’s management should be doing absolutely everything they can to put the team in the best possible position to win a Stanley Cup, and the body of evidence suggests that their cup chances would improve most by upgrading their current goaltending tandem. Simply put, they can and should aim a lot higher..